New Hampshire vs Boston College prediction: Money Williams and a deliberate Boston College test New Hampshire's stingy start
Luke Murray's rebuilt Eagles lean on a Montana transfer and a crawling tempo, and New Hampshire has so far let almost nobody score.
- Expect a slow, low-possession game in which Boston College's half-court creator and its free throw shooting matter more than any run of threes.
- Money Williams against a New Hampshire defense holding opponents to a 36.9% effective field goal rate, 29th nationally.
- Both teams are 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 to the under; BC plays at 60.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 360th.
The Montana transfer runs everything
Boston College has a new coach, a new roster and, two games in, one clear answer to who takes the big shot. Money Williams is scoring 28.5 points per game and using 33.3% of BC's possessions while on the floor, the kind of load usually reserved for a mid-major star. He was a high-usage player last season at Montana too, averaging 20.6 points with a 34.1% usage rate.
His next test is the best defense he has seen statistically. New Hampshire is allowing a 36.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 29th in the country. The caveat is the opposition: the Wildcats' wins came against Brown and Rider, teams that finished 290th and 357th in last season's adjusted net ratings. Williams is a different problem than anything those offenses posed, and the Wildcats will have to decide early whether to send help and live with BC's other guards shooting.
Two slow teams, few possessions
Murray's first BC team does not hurry. The Eagles average 60.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 360th of 364 Division I teams. New Hampshire isn't much faster at 65.3, 338th. Fewer trips means fewer chances for either side to shoot its way out of a cold stretch, and it helps explain why both teams have gone under the closing total in every game so far.
The Wildcats have also started slowly, scoring 23.5 first-half points per game, 347th nationally. They trailed Brown at the half before rallying to win 59-55. Against a BC defense allowing 52.5 points per game, 24th nationally, a sluggish first 20 minutes could leave New Hampshire chasing in a game with little time to catch up.
The free throw line
New Hampshire's offense has found a way to score without making shots: it gets fouled. The Wildcats' free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 64.8%, ninth in the country. The problem is converting, at 69.5% from the line.
Boston College has the opposite profile at the stripe. The Eagles make 84.3% of their free throws, 12th nationally, and five of the points in their 11-0 run against Wagner came at the line. In a slow game that stays close late, that gap could decide the final margin.
New rosters, old ratings
Last season's numbers say little about this Boston College team. The Eagles return none of last season's minutes. Murray, an assistant at UConn since 2021, replaced Earl Grant and rebuilt the roster around 11 transfers. BC finished 151st in last season's adjusted net efficiency, but this group shares only a jersey with that one.
The rebuild already has a hole. Guard Jacob Furphy sprained his MCL, missed the opener and was expected to be out a few weeks as of Nov. 6. Murray has also said "Size at the five (center) is something we're lacking a little bit."
New Hampshire brings back 43.7% of last season's minutes, including guard Tyler Bike and forward John Squire. That carries more weight, though the 2025-26 Wildcats were 344th in adjusted net efficiency. They do have a memory here: UNH won at Conte Forum 74-71 in overtime in December 2022.
What to watch
- BC's defensive glass. The Eagles grab just 60.8% of opponents' misses, 329th, but UNH rebounds only 19.4% of its own misses, 349th. Somebody's weakness gets hidden.
- Ball security. BC turns it over on 12.3% of possessions, 39th, limiting the steals that fuel UNH's transition.
- Brandon Benjamin's minutes. The Fairfield transfer is BC's interior answer to Murray's size concern.
- Bike's shot. New Hampshire's returning guard has to make perimeter shots for the Wildcats to keep pace.
Where the money is on New Hampshire vs Boston College
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Hampshire: 83% of bets, 82% of the money; Boston College: 17% of bets, 18% of the money.
Key players
- Money Williams (Boston College): Averaging 28.5 points and 4.5 assists on a 33.3% usage rate.
- Brandon Benjamin (Boston College): Shooting 87.5% from the field with 9.0 rebounds in just 17.0 minutes per game.
- Armoni Zeigler (Boston College): Averaging 3.0 steals per game in 30.5 minutes as BC's top defensive disruptor.
- Ernest Shelton (Boston College): A 34.6% three-point shooter at Merrimack last season who has opened 3-of-14 from deep.
- Tyler Bike (New Hampshire): Leads UNH at 12.0 points per game after shooting 37.5% from three last season.
- Josiah Coleman (New Hampshire): Scoring 11.0 points per game off the bench on 57.1% shooting.
- Myles Blackley (New Hampshire): Posting a 60.7% effective field goal percentage and 1.5 blocks per game.
Numbers that matter
| BC pace | 60.8 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 360th of 364, setting up a short, grinding game. |
|---|---|---|
| UNH opponent eFG% | 36.9% | 29th nationally, though built against Brown and Rider. |
| UNH free throw rate | 64.8% | Ninth in the country, the Wildcats' main source of offense so far. |
| Money Williams scoring | 28.5 | Points per game for the Montana transfer who carries BC's offense. |
| BC returning minutes | 0.0% | A full rebuild under Luke Murray makes last season's BC numbers a weak guide. |
New Hampshire vs Boston College: quick answers
When is New Hampshire vs Boston College?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET.
Where is the money on New Hampshire vs Boston College?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Hampshire: 83% of bets, 82% of the money; Boston College: 17% of bets, 18% of the money.