Missouri vs Marquette prediction: Marquette's suffocating defense finally faces a real offense in Missouri

A wall built against whom

Marquette's defense has been absurd through two games. It has allowed 57.3 points per 100 possessions, the best mark in Division I, and held opponents to a 29.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times). The 93-32 rout of Detroit Mercy looked like a scrimmage.

The opponents explain part of it. Mercyhurst and Detroit Mercy both sit deep in the bottom half of the adjusted rankings. Missouri is the first team on the schedule built to score, and it already has a high-major-style test on its résumé: a 90-84 neutral-floor loss to a Saint Louis team ranked 30th in adjusted net efficiency.

This is also a different Marquette from the one that went 12-20 last season. Shaka Smart's group was picked fourth in the Big East, with Nigel James Jr. a unanimous preseason first-teamer.

The turnover battle sets everything

The most important collision is simple. Missouri has turned it over on just 9.7% of its possessions, sixth in the country. Marquette forces turnovers on 28.2%, 22nd, and James is averaging 2.5 steals a game.

Missouri's protection is remarkable given its construction. Dennis Gates said his team has seven starters and no true point guard, and the playmaking comes from everywhere. Mark Mitchell is averaging 6.0 assists, and freshman Jason Crowe Jr. handed out seven against Saint Louis.

If Missouri keeps that rate anywhere near its current level, Marquette loses the cheap transition points that padded its two blowouts. If James and the guards start jumping passing lanes, the game tilts fast.

Threes outside, size inside

Missouri's soft spot is the perimeter. Opponents are hitting 39.0% from three, 323rd nationally, and Saint Louis was lethal from deep while building a 49-38 halftime lead.

Marquette may not be equipped to punish that. The Golden Eagles are shooting 26.7% from three, 292nd. They do their damage inside, hitting 64.9% of their twos, and they crash the glass, grabbing 50.7% of their own misses (ninth).

That puts the game in the paint, where Missouri can fight back. The Tigers block 18.8% of opponents' two-point tries, 27th in the country, led by Bryson Tiller's 2.5 blocks a game. Joshua Clark, who had a career game against Mercyhurst, and Sananda Fru are the bigs who have to finish over him.

Missouri's shifting roster

Missouri returns just 19.4% of last season's minutes, so its 20-13 finish says little about this team. The availability list is long. Tennessee transfer Jaylen Carey was suspended indefinitely for violating team rules as of Nov. 3, though the suspension was expected to be short. Freshman wing Aidan Chronister is out at least four weeks with a hand injury, Annor Boateng is out for the season, and CJ Gunn was ruled ineligible. Luke Northweather's status is unsettled.

Mitchell is eligible and playing, but his ongoing legal fight means that could still change.

Crowe is the swing piece. The McDonald's All-American scored 23 in the opener, then went 3-for-18 against Saint Louis. Marquette has no confirmed injuries; an undated report said Caedin Hamilton tore his calf, and his status hasn't been confirmed.

Tempo and the total

Both teams come in on nine days of rest, at a neutral United Center. Marquette plays slowly, at 65.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 327th in the country. Missouri runs closer to the middle of the pack.

The totals history points in opposite directions. Missouri's defense gave up 49 first-half points to Saint Louis and both of its games cleared the total. Marquette's two games stayed under. Whichever team controls the pace likely controls that number.

• Early turnovers: a sloppy Missouri start feeds Marquette's best weapon.
• Crowe's shot selection: volume without efficiency sank Missouri against Saint Louis.
• Marquette from three: even average shooting would expose Missouri's perimeter defense.