Louisville vs Memphis prediction: Jayden Reid's free-throw parade tests No. 11 Louisville in Memphis

Reid lives at the line

The rivalry restarts with two rosters that barely resemble last year's. Louisville returns 11.4% of last season's minutes, Memphis 11.2%, so the 99-73 Cardinals rout last December says little about Sunday afternoon at FedExForum. What does matter is how Memphis has won its first two games.

The Tigers get to the foul line constantly. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 65.1%, seventh in the country. The engine is Jayden Reid, the Northwestern transfer who is using 35.5% of Memphis possessions while he is on the floor and making 82.6% of his free throws. He scored 26 against Iowa State on just 11 shots.

Louisville's defense has done the opposite: its opponents' free throw rate is 23.3%, 47th nationally. The catch is who those opponents were. Chattanooga and Morehead State rank 293rd and 282nd in adjusted net efficiency. Whether the Cardinals' guards can stay in front of Reid without fouling is the question this game turns on.

Two very different early schedules

Memphis has already been tested. The Tigers beat No. 18 Iowa State 80-76 on a neutral floor in Sioux Falls as a 15.25-point underdog, then edged VCU 89-88 at home. Both wins came down to the final possessions, and the defense has been loose: opponents are shooting 38.6% from three, 320th nationally.

Louisville has mostly been running up scores. After a sluggish 84-70 win over Chattanooga that missed a 30-point spread, the Cardinals led Morehead State by 13 at halftime, opened the second half on a 40-2 run and won 107-57. Coach Pat Kelsey's third team arrived ranked No. 11 in the preseason, but this is its first road game and its first opponent with a pulse.

Louisville's size, minus two pieces

Louisville's clearest edge is on the glass. The Cardinals are rebounding 46.9% of their own misses, 23rd nationally, and Memphis has grabbed 69.6% of opponents' misses, 211th. Second chances should be there.

Kansas transfer Flory Bidunga anchors that frontcourt with 13.0 points and 8.0 rebounds a game. He took a hard fall late in the opener but played against Morehead State, and Kelsey didn't think it was serious. Freshman Obinna Ekezie Jr., a 7-foot-2 center, posted 20 points and 13 rebounds in that game. Inside the arc, Louisville is making 70.3% of its twos, ninth in the country.

The rotation is thinner than planned. Seven-foot-6 center Gabe Dynes had shoulder surgery and was expected to miss at least four months as of Nov. 3. Dayton transfer guard De'Shayne Montgomery was expected to miss four to six weeks with a foot injury as of the same date, which likely keeps him out Sunday.

Memphis has its own frontcourt hole. Nemanja Popovic, a 24-year-old Serbian forward, is serving a six-game NCAA withholding period that began with the opener after the school's appeal was denied, so he isn't expected to play.

Who wins the three-point math

Louisville hoists threes like few teams do, with 53.3% of its shots coming from deep, 23rd nationally. They haven't fallen yet: the Cardinals are making 30.1%. Oregon transfer Jackson Shelstad is 5 of 20 from three. A Memphis defense that has allowed open looks gives this group a chance to find its stroke.

Memphis shoots far less often from outside but has made 45.2% of its threes, 22nd in the country. Forward Rihards Vavers is 7 of 12. If those numbers hold up even partly, and Memphis keeps living at the line, the Tigers can survive their 46.3% shooting inside the arc.