Iowa vs Creighton prediction: Alan Huss's ball-hawking Creighton tests a rebuilt Iowa in Des Moines
Creighton has gone from one of the most passive defenses in the country to one that lives on steals, and Iowa's reshuffled backcourt has to handle it on a floor that has treated the Hawkeyes well.
- Iowa's shotmaking should carry it unless Creighton's pressure produces a steady run of live-ball steals and easy transition points.
- Creighton's turnover-hungry guards against Ty'Reek Coleman, Iowa's high-usage sixth man who runs the offense off the bench.
- No line has posted yet. Creighton is 0-2 against the spread with both games going under, despite winning each comfortably.
Creighton suddenly hunts the ball
The most striking number in Alan Huss's first two games as Creighton's head coach is on defense. The Bluejays are forcing turnovers on 28.7% of opponent possessions, 15th in Division I. Last season, under Greg McDermott, that rate ranked 347th. This is a different defense, built around new guards who jump passing lanes: Creighton's steal rate sits 18th nationally, and BJ Davis is averaging three steals a game.
Iowa's ball security is merely average so far. The Hawkeyes give it away on 17.0% of their possessions, 170th in the country, and their lead guard comes off the bench in a backcourt still learning to play together. If Creighton turns this into a scramble, it erases Iowa's biggest edge, which is what happens when the Hawkeyes get a clean shot.
The caveat is the competition. Creighton built these numbers against Kansas City and Le Moyne, two of the weaker teams in Division I.
Iowa still shoots it without Stirtz
Ben McCollum lost Bennett Stirtz, who averaged 19.8 points a game last season, and brings back just 56.4% of last season's minutes. The offense hasn't missed a beat yet. Iowa's effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes) is 64.0%, 20th nationally.
The shots are spread around. Ty'Reek Coleman, the Illinois State transfer, carries a 28.7% usage rate and averages five assists without starting. Peyton McCollum has knocked down six of his 14 threes, and Cooper Koch, a 40.2% three-point shooter last season, has been efficient in a small role. Center Trevin Jirak is a genuine hub, averaging six assists.
Two things could drag Iowa down. Andrew McKeever, the Saint Mary's transfer center, missed both games with a back injury and had more spasms before the Eastern Illinois game on Nov. 6; Iowa hasn't said whether he'll be ready. And the Hawkeyes are shooting 55.6% at the line, 339th in the country, a real concern if this one tightens late.
Enis carries a thin backcourt
Creighton's offense runs through Wes Enis, the South Florida transfer who scored 25 in his debut. He averages 20.5 points on a 33.2% usage rate, but he is getting there on volume: he is shooting 35.1% from the floor. As a team, Creighton is making 31.7% of its threes, 207th nationally, which explains how two blowout wins still went under the total.
The Bluejays are short at the point. Freshman Katrelle Harmon has been described as the only true point guard currently eligible, and Fredrick King and Brody Robinson are still waiting on fifth-year eligibility, with Huss calling it "wait and see mode." Jackson McAndrew, whose foot discomfort clouded his status before the exhibition, has played both games and made six of his 13 threes. He is the cleanest shooter Creighton has.
Neutral floor, friendly crowd
Casey's Center is listed as neutral, but it has been kind to Iowa: the Hawkeyes have won eight of their last nine games there since 2013. Iowa leads the series 14-12, though Creighton won the last meeting 92-84 in Omaha in 2023.
Last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions against the quality of opponents, had Iowa 21st in net efficiency and Creighton 77th. Both rosters have turned over so much that those ratings are only a loose guide. Iowa also has a game against Virginia Tech in Sioux City on Nov. 10, the first of three straight power-conference opponents, so the Hawkeyes will arrive with a real test fresh in their legs. Creighton's next test is this one.
Where the money is on Iowa vs Creighton
On the Kalshi moneyline: Iowa: 67% of bets, 91% of the money; Creighton: 33% of bets, 9% of the money.
Key players
- Ty'Reek Coleman (Iowa): Coleman carries a 28.7% usage rate and averages 5.0 assists in 22 minutes off the bench.
- Peyton McCollum (Iowa): McCollum has made 6 of his 14 three-point attempts and is averaging 11.0 points.
- Cooper Koch (Iowa): A 40.2% three-point shooter last season, Koch has an 87.5% effective field goal percentage so far.
- Trevin Jirak (Iowa): Jirak averages 7.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists while McKeever sits.
- Wes Enis (Creighton): Enis averages 20.5 points on a 33.2% usage rate but is shooting 35.1% from the floor.
- Jackson McAndrew (Creighton): McAndrew has made 6 of 13 threes and has a 144.7 offensive rating.
- BJ Davis (Creighton): The San Diego State transfer averages 3.0 steals and 11.0 points.
- Katrelle Harmon (Creighton): Harmon averages 5.5 assists but is shooting 30.8% from the field.
Numbers that matter
| Creighton forced turnover rate | 28.7% | Ranks 15th nationally, after the Bluejays ranked 347th in this stat last season. |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa effective FG% | 64.0% | Ranks 20th and shows the offense has kept scoring efficiently without Bennett Stirtz. |
| Iowa turnover rate | 17.0% | Ranks 170th, which makes Creighton's pressure the key matchup in this game. |
| Creighton 3-point % | 31.7% | Ranks 207th; Enis and company are winning on volume rather than accuracy. |
| Iowa free throw % | 55.6% | Ranks 339th, a real liability if the game is close late. |
Iowa vs Creighton: quick answers
When is Iowa vs Creighton?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Where is the money on Iowa vs Creighton?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Iowa: 67% of bets, 91% of the money; Creighton: 33% of bets, 9% of the money.