High Point vs Saint Louis prediction: Saint Louis shoots hot without Avila as High Point drags tempo down

Billikens firing without Avila

Saint Louis has spent its first week answering a question it never wanted to face: what happens without Robbie Avila? So far, plenty. A St. Louis City judge granted the center a preliminary injunction for a fifth season on Nov. 5, but the College Sports Commission said a day later that it can't carry out a state order requiring an extra roster slot. Avila sat out the Missouri game, and as of Nov. 6 his status for this one was unresolved, with his camp expected to keep fighting.

The Billikens beat Missouri 90-84 anyway as underdogs, with five players in double figures. Through two games they own an effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) of 65.3%, 14th in Division I, and they are hitting 45.8% from deep. That is a small sample, but it fits who they are: Green made 44.2% of his threes last season and Sharma 41.7%, and both are back in a group that returns 58.6% of last season's minutes.

A new High Point, a slower one

High Point went 31-5 last season, but that roster is mostly gone. Only 31.7% of last season's minutes return, so last year's numbers say little about this group. Flynn Clayman rebuilt through the portal, and the new version plays a different game.

Last season's Panthers ran at a pace ranked 32nd nationally. This year's average 65.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 327th. The bigger concern is ball security: last season's team coughed it up on just 12.9% of possessions, third-best in the country, while this one sits at 20.7%, 277th. Saint Louis doesn't force many mistakes, ranking 299th in forced turnover rate, so that matchup gives High Point a chance to clean things up. If it doesn't, the Billikens get extra shots for an offense already shooting this well.

Paint, whistles and the glass

High Point's best path runs inside. The Panthers make 63.5% of their twos, 50th nationally, and their free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) of 48.0% ranks 70th. Saint Louis has fouled a lot early, allowing an opponent free throw rate that ranks 250th.

Cam'Ron Fletcher is the engine, averaging 14.0 points and 8.0 rebounds while shooting 66.7% from the field. His free throw shooting (57.9%) is the catch if High Point lives at the line. Isaac Garrett adds rim protection at 1.7 blocks per game.

The Billikens give something back on the glass. Their offensive rebound rate of 19.7% ranks 348th, so they rarely get second chances when shots stop falling. With Avila out, the frontcourt leans on Alon Michaeli, who has averaged 7.5 rebounds. He has dealt with an ankle sprain, though he logged 25 minutes against Missouri.

The schedule and the trends

Neither résumé has been tested much. Saint Louis beat a Missouri team that finished 57th in adjusted net rating last season. High Point's best wins came against Liberty and Washington State, neither inside the top 100 by that measure, and the Panthers failed to cover against both Maryland Eastern Shore and Washington State.

The totals trend is just as clear. All three High Point games went under, and both Saint Louis games went over. Last season's final adjusted ratings had Saint Louis 30th in net efficiency and High Point 73rd, though the Panthers' turnover makes that gap hard to trust. This is the first game of a home-and-home series. Both teams come in with more than a week off: High Point has eight days of rest, Saint Louis nine.

What to watch

• Avila's status. Any CSC reversal before tip changes the Saint Louis frontcourt.
• High Point's turnovers. A clean game keeps the pace slow and the score low.
• Trips to the line. Fletcher and CJ Brown attacking a Saint Louis team that fouls often.
• Curtis Williams Jr.'s shot. The Tulane transfer is 2 of 13 from three.