Harvard vs American University prediction: American's three-point barrage gets a home test against Harvard
After two road losses at power-conference gyms, American opens its home floor by firing away from deep against a Harvard team that defended the arc well last season.
- American will shoot a lot of threes; Harvard's slower, steadier style and elite free-throw shooting should tilt a tight game toward the Crimson late.
- Madden Collins, carrying a 39.6% usage rate, against a Harvard backcourt that returns Hinton, Barbour and Eisendrath.
- No line is posted yet. American covered as a 15.75-point underdog at Clemson, its only cover in two lined games.
American lives beyond the arc
American has spent the first week of its 100th season on the road, and it has made one thing clear: it will let it fly. The Eagles take 51.8% of their shots from three, 32nd-most in Division I, and they hit 13 threes in an 82-73 loss at Clemson on Nov. 6. That volume is partly a choice and partly a necessity. Inside the arc they are making just 39.6% of their twos, 342nd of 364.
Harvard's perimeter defense is the counterweight. Last season the Crimson held opponents to 31.7% from three, 60th nationally. With four starters back, that profile should mostly carry over. The Crimson's 73-45 opener against MIT tells us little about how they defend a team that shoots like American, so last season's tape is the better guide. If American's shooters run cold, the Eagles have little to fall back on near the rim.
The extra-possession problem
American's bigger issue may be how few chances it gets. The Eagles are turning it over on 21.3% of possessions (turnovers per 100 possessions), 296th nationally, and grabbing only 17.8% of their own misses, 357th. That combination means a jump-shooting team gets few second looks and gives away too many first ones.
Harvard's backcourt can make that worse. Ben Eisendrath had four steals against MIT, and Robert Hinton added two. Last season Harvard secured 72.2% of opponents' misses, 72nd in the country, which limits the offensive glass American already struggles to crash.
Tempo and the free-throw line
Last season Harvard played at 63.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 347th of 365, one of the slowest paces in the sport. Freshmen Jason Singleton and Preston Merrick were flagged in preseason as newcomers who can push the tempo, so the Crimson may look a bit quicker, though their roles aren't settled. American played at 71 possessions per 40 minutes through two games.
If this one stays close, Harvard's free-throw shooting matters. The Crimson made 79.9% at the line last season, first in Division I. Both teams were among the nation's lowest in getting to the line last season, so free throws may decide margins more than volume.
Who carries the load
American runs through Madden Collins. The sophomore preseason all-Patriot League pick is averaging 21.5 points with a 39.6% usage rate (the share of possessions he finishes while on the floor), and he scored 23 on 10-of-20 shooting at Clemson. Julen Iturbe adds 7.5 rebounds a game, and junior forward Eric Michaels, back after missing all of last season with an injury, is blocking 2.5 shots a game.
Harvard is more balanced. Hinton led the team at 16.8 points per game last season, and Tey Barbour shot 39.6% from three last season before going 4-of-6 against MIT. Thomas Batties II rounds out a veteran core under Tommy Amaker, now in his 20th season. Junior guard Austin Hunt was expected back from an injury that cost him most of last season, but he didn't suit up in the exhibition and his status was unknown as of Nov. 2.
Stakes and setting
This is American's regular-season home opener at Bender Arena, and the Eagles come in 0-2 after losing 79-53 at Cincinnati and 82-73 at Clemson. Those were tough assignments: Cincinnati ranked 48th and Clemson 38th in adjusted net efficiency. American is the Patriot League preseason favorite; Harvard was picked second in the Ivy. Last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Harvard 153rd and American 246th. Harvard won the last meeting, 80-75, in 2023.
What to watch: - American's three-point percentage in the first 10 minutes - The Eagles' turnover count against Harvard's guards - Whether Hunt is available for Harvard
Key players
- Madden Collins (American University): Averaging 21.5 points on a 39.6% usage rate through two road games.
- Julen Iturbe (American University): Pulling down 7.5 rebounds a game and has taken 13 threes in two games.
- Greg Jones (American University): Bounced back from 0-of-5 at Cincinnati to score 10 at Clemson.
- Eric Michaels (American University): Back from a missed season and blocking 2.5 shots per game.
- Robert Hinton (Harvard): Averaged 16.8 points last season and scored 12 on 4-of-7 shooting against MIT.
- Tey Barbour (Harvard): Shot 39.6% from three last season and opened 4-of-6 from deep against MIT.
- Ben Eisendrath (Harvard): Had 4 steals and 8 rebounds in the opener against MIT.
- Thomas Batties II (Harvard): Scored 11 with 5 rebounds in the MIT opener.
Numbers that matter
| American 3-point attempt rate | 51.8% | 32nd-most in Division I, so the Eagles' night rides on their jumpers. |
|---|---|---|
| Harvard opponent 3-point % (last season) | 31.7% | Ranked 60th last season, a strong guard against American's shooting volume. |
| American turnover rate | 21.3% | 296th nationally, handing away possessions a three-heavy team can't spare. |
| Harvard free-throw % (last season) | 79.9% | First in Division I last season, valuable in a close finish. |
| Madden Collins usage rate | 39.6% | American's offense funnels heavily through one sophomore guard. |
Harvard vs American University: quick answers
When is Harvard vs American University?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.