Dartmouth vs Boston University prediction: Kyrone Alexander and BU's free-throw attack test Dartmouth's foul habit
Boston University lives at the line, and a rebuilt Dartmouth team under a first-year coach has been sending opponents there while missing its own free throws.
- Expect a game of runs: Dartmouth fires threes and chases turnovers, BU drives to the line and leans on Alexander.
- Kyrone Alexander against Dartmouth's perimeter defense: he is averaging 24.0 points and scored 19 in his return largely off nine free throws.
- No line is posted yet. BU is 2-0 against the spread, covering as a favorite against Northeastern and as an underdog at Brown.
The whistle could decide it
Boston University has turned free throws into an identity in two games. The Terriers' free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) sits at 60.0%, 14th in Division I. Dartmouth's defense has gone the other way, allowing an opponent free throw rate of 44.1%, which ranks 288th.
That gap matters more because of who gets to the line. Kyrone Alexander, back from a season-ending injury and playing his first home games since the 2025 Patriot League quarterfinals, scored 19 points off nine free throws in the opener against Northeastern. Then he went 10-of-13 from the floor for 29 at Brown.
Dartmouth can't easily trade points back at the stripe. The Big Green are shooting 60.0% on free throws, 313th nationally, and their own free throw rate ranks 299th. In a close game at Case Gym, that is the clearest structural edge for the home team.
Dartmouth's threes and hands
Brett MacConnell's first Dartmouth team plays fast and hunts from deep. The Big Green take 49.2% of their shots from three, 53rd in the country, and force turnovers on 25.7% of opponent possessions, 42nd.
Both numbers come with an asterisk: one of the two games was a 107-50 win over Framingham State, which has no adjusted rating in our data. The Marist game is the better guide, and there Dartmouth trailed by nine in the second half before closing on a 31-15 run to win 69-62 as an underdog.
BU's ball security is middling, with an 18.0% turnover rate that ranks 200th, and the Terriers carry an assist rate ranked 340th. That points to an offense built on Alexander creating alone, which is exactly the kind of offense a pressing, gambling defense can sometimes rattle. A preseason preview called Brandeis transfer Alex Zakheim probably the closest thing BU has to a true point guard.
Two rebuilt rosters
Neither team looks much like last season's version. Dartmouth lost all five starters and returns 32.7% of last season's minutes. Leading scorer Kareem Thomas left for Seton Hall. BU returns 41.6% of its minutes after losing Mike McNair Jr. to Maryland and Ben Defty to Arizona State.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide, but they do frame the starting point. Both teams finished last season with nearly identical adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents): Dartmouth ranked 265th and BU 261st. BU finished 17-17 and reached the Patriot League title game; Dartmouth went 11-16.
The returners now carry bigger roles. Cameron McNamee has jumped to a 31.4% usage rate for Dartmouth. For BU, Sam Hughes and Azmar Abdullah are the veteran shooters around Alexander, though Abdullah is 3-of-12 from three so far.
Schedule and series
Dartmouth plays Central Connecticut State today, Nov. 8, so its form will have one more data point before the trip to Boston. BU's two wins came against Northeastern and Brown, opponents that ranked 279th and 290th in adjusted net efficiency.
The series has favored the home side lately. Dartmouth won the last meeting 77-64 in Hanover in December 2025, while BU's most recent home game in the series was a 78-50 rout at Case Gym in November 2024. No injuries are listed for Dartmouth as of Nov. 7, and no current status report on Alexander has surfaced.
What to watch
- Foul count on Dartmouth's guards. If Alexander keeps drawing contact, BU's free-throw edge compounds.
- Dartmouth's three-point volume. Cam Hiatt and Ernas Valauskas give the Big Green shooters who can erase a deficit quickly.
- BU's turnovers. An offense light on passing and point-guard play faces a defense that has thrived on steals.
Key players
- Kyrone Alexander (Boston University): Averaging 24.0 points with a 154.1 offensive rating in his return from a season-ending injury.
- Sam Hughes (Boston University): Scoring 14.5 points per game on a 67.5% effective field goal percentage.
- Michelangelo Oberti (Boston University): Posting 12.5 points and 7.0 rebounds, including a 10-rebound game at Brown.
- Azmar Abdullah (Boston University): Averaging 14.0 points but shooting 25% from three after hitting 39.4% last season.
- Cameron McNamee (Dartmouth): Leads Dartmouth at 14.0 points per game with a 31.4% usage rate.
- Ernas Valauskas (Dartmouth): Scoring 12.5 points per game and has made 4 of 8 threes.
- Cam Hiatt (Dartmouth): Averaging 11.5 points while shooting 57.1% from three.
- Landon Williams (Dartmouth): Shot 37.3% from three at Niagara last season and is 4-of-5 from the floor against Marist.
Numbers that matter
| BU free throw rate | 60.0% | Ranks 14th nationally and fuels an offense built around Alexander getting to the line. |
|---|---|---|
| Dartmouth opponent free throw rate | 44.1% | Ranks 288th, a foul habit that plays into BU's strength. |
| Dartmouth free throw % | 60.0% | Ranks 313th, which limits the Big Green's ability to close a tight game. |
| Dartmouth forced turnover rate | 25.7% | Ranks 42nd, though one of its two games came against a non-Division I opponent. |
| Dartmouth returning minutes | 32.7% | A new coach and five new starters make last season's numbers a thin guide. |
Dartmouth vs Boston University: quick answers
When is Dartmouth vs Boston University?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.