Colgate vs Delaware prediction: Chuck Bailey III's hot hand tests Colgate's wide-open perimeter
A rebuilt Delaware team has shot the lights out from deep, and an 0-2 Colgate defense has let opponents fire away from three.
- Delaware's guards hunt threes against a Colgate defense that concedes them, while the Raiders lean on Alekseyenko and Wright inside a close, physical game.
- Chuck Bailey III, hitting 72.7% from three, against a Colgate perimeter that allows the 76th-highest opponent 3-point attempt rate.
- No spread or total has posted yet. Both Colgate games went over, with closing totals of 154.5 and 143.5.
Bailey and the new Blue Hens
Martin Ingelsby, starting his 11th season, rebuilt almost from scratch. Delaware returns just 25.8% of last season's minutes from a team that went 10-21, so last season's numbers say little about this group. The new version runs through transfers, and none has mattered more than Chuck Bailey III.
The Nevada transfer is averaging 24.0 points and has made 8 of 11 threes. He scored 26 at Wisconsin on Nov. 6, his second straight game above 20, as Delaware lost by nine but covered a 25.75-point spread against a team that ranked 25th in adjusted net efficiency last season. Georgetown transfer DeShawn Harris-Smith runs the offense, dishing 8.5 assists per game.
One caution: Delaware's season numbers include a 105-44 rout of Notre Dame (Md.), an opponent with no Division I rating. That inflates every team stat, including a defense that has held opponents to a 37.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times).
Colgate's open three-point door
Colgate's defense has not slowed anyone. It has allowed 83.5 points per game, and opponents are taking 47.4% of their shots from three, the 76th-highest rate in the country. Its pressure is nearly nonexistent: the Raiders rank 356th of 364 in steal rate.
That sets up Delaware's strength. The Blue Hens have made 47.2% of their threes, 13th nationally. Nick Petronio, who missed the last two seasons with two separate ACL injuries, has hit 6 of 9 off the bench. If Colgate keeps giving up clean looks, Delaware's shooters decide the game.
Alekseyenko carries the Raiders
Colgate's case starts in the frontcourt, arguably the best in the Patriot League. Andrew Alekseyenko, last season's rookie of the year and a preseason Player of the Year pick, is averaging 22.5 points and 12.5 rebounds while using 35.1% of possessions. Sam Wright adds 18.0 points a night.
The backcourt is the worry. Jalen Cox, who scored 17.9 per game last season, left for USC, and point guard was flagged as the team's biggest question. Blake Forrest has 2.0 points per game in 26 minutes. Delaware's interior defense, holding foes to 37.3% on twos (35th), will test whether two forwards can carry the scoring alone.
Free throws and late nerve
Colgate's loss at Drexel showed how thin its margins are. The Raiders led by double figures, ripped off a 16-0 second-half run and still fell 77-74. Free throws are a problem: they are shooting 55.6% from the line, 339th of 364.
The flip side helps them. Colgate fouls constantly, ranking 327th in opponent free throw rate, but Delaware almost never gets there, ranking 350th in free throw rate. Neither team is likely to win this at the stripe, which keeps the game on the perimeter.
What to watch
- Delaware guard health: Jameel Brown was listed out with a lower leg injury on an undated report, yet he took a shot at Wisconsin; his status is unconfirmed. Petronio was listed questionable with a knee issue on the same report but played Nov. 6.
- Colgate ball security: The Raiders rank 62nd in turnover rate, a real edge if Delaware cannot force mistakes.
- Rest and setting: Both teams arrive rested, with Colgate off 8 days and Delaware 9, for Delaware's Military Appreciation doubleheader in Newark.
- The market: No line has posted. Colgate is 1-1 against the spread.
Key players
- Andrew Alekseyenko (Colgate): Averaging 22.5 points and 12.5 rebounds with a 35.1% usage rate.
- Sam Wright (Colgate): Scoring 18.0 points per game and has made 5 of 9 threes.
- Josh Ahayere (Colgate): Up to 12.0 points per game after averaging 7.8 last season.
- Chuck Bailey III (Delaware): Averaging 24.0 points on 72.7% three-point shooting.
- DeShawn Harris-Smith (Delaware): Running the offense with 8.5 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game.
- Nick Petronio (Delaware): Has made 6 of 9 threes in 24.0 minutes per game after two lost seasons.
Numbers that matter
| Delaware 3-point % | 47.2% | Ranks 13th nationally, though it includes a rout of a non-Division I opponent. |
|---|---|---|
| Colgate opponent 3PA rate | 47.4% | Opponents take threes at the 76th-highest rate against the Raiders. |
| Colgate free throw % | 55.6% | Ranks 339th of 364, a liability in a close finish like the Drexel loss. |
| Delaware returning minutes | 25.8% | So little returns that last season's 10-21 team is a weak guide. |
Colgate vs Delaware: quick answers
When is Colgate vs Delaware?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.