Boise State vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska's defense gets first look at Boise State's rebuilt roster

Boise starts over

Leon Rice is in his 17th season at Boise State, and he has rarely started from this far back. Four of last season's five starters left for Power Four programs and Dylan Andrews ran out of eligibility. The Broncos return just 27.5% of last season's minutes.

That makes last season's 20-12 record a weak guide, and the same goes for Boise's final adjusted net rating of 14.5, which ranked 56th. Adjusted efficiency measures points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. The only game this season was a 132-53 rout of West Coast Baptist, a non-Division I opponent, so those numbers tell almost nothing. The real first test comes today, when Boise hosts Butler on national TV. The media picked the Broncos sixth in their first Pac-12 season.

Nebraska's defense travels

Nebraska turned over its roster too after a Sweet 16 run, returning 39.8% of its minutes. The identity survived. Fred Hoiberg's team finished last season eighth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the early evidence fits.

Providence ranks 72nd in adjusted net rating, and it scored only 58 points against the Huskers on a neutral floor Nov. 7. Nebraska is also taking the ball away. Through two games it has a forced turnover rate of 25.4%, 48th nationally, meaning opponents give it away on about a quarter of their possessions. That pressure lands on a Boise backcourt still learning to play together. Aginaldo Neto handed out eight assists in the opener, and Georgia Tech transfer Lamar Washington averaged 5.1 assists there last season.

Sandfort and the arc

Sandfort is the engine. He is scoring 22.5 points a game, and last season he hit 41.6% of 310 threes. He is only 4 of 14 from deep so far, but his history says that won't last. Nebraska took 51.1% of its shots from three last season, 10th most in the country, and Boise's defense allowed 34.7% from deep, 251st.

Not every Husker is clicking. Braden Frager is shooting 15.4% from three. Cale Jacobsen has been the efficient surprise, with a career-high 16 points against Le Moyne.

Boise's answer from deep is Damari Wheeler-Thomas. The North Dakota State transfer shot 38.3% from three last season on 188 attempts and opened with 17 points.

Who controls the glass

Last season's Boise team ended possessions as well as anyone: its 77.1% defensive rebound rate ranked third nationally. Nebraska rarely crashed, with an offensive rebound rate of 26.7% that ranked 324th. If that holds, Nebraska's shooters get one look per trip.

The Broncos rebuilt that edge with new bodies. Jerquarius Stanback grabbed 16 rebounds off the bench in the opener, seven of them offensive. Dovydas Butka added 18 points and nine boards. Nebraska is the bigger team, though, at 79.3 inches of minutes-weighted height against Boise's 77.8.

Health and the setting

Nebraska's biggest question is Sam Orme. The Belmont transfer missed all three exhibitions and the Nov. 2 opener with a hamstring injury, and no update on his status has surfaced since. Connor Essegian is back from last season's ankle injury and scored 13 in his return. Henry Burt, who missed last season with a knee injury, also saw minutes.

Boise State has been without Illinois transfer Ty Rodgers. As of late September, a knee injury was expected to keep him out for an extended period.

The Sanford Pentagon suits Nebraska: the Huskers are 3-1 all-time in Sioux Falls, and center Damon Wilkinson arrives from South Dakota State. This is the programs' second meeting. The first came in the semifinals of the inaugural College Basketball Crown in April 2025.