Baylor vs Texas prediction: Baylor's ball-hawking newcomers test No. 7 Texas and its freshman guards

A rivalry with a new look

Baylor has won 12 of the last 15 meetings with Texas, but almost nobody who built that run is still around. These are two rosters assembled in the portal, meeting on a neutral floor in San Antonio for the first time since the Longhorns left the Big 12. Texas arrives ranked No. 7 after a Sweet 16 season; Baylor arrives unranked after going 17-17 and missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019-20.

The question that decides Sunday: can Baylor's new defense take the ball away from a Texas team that has barely been touched?

Baylor's pressure, Texas's young hands

Through two games, Baylor forces turnovers on 32.1% of opponent possessions (turnovers per 100 possessions), second in Division I. That is a brand-new identity. Last season's Bears ranked 248th in the same stat.

The freshman Dylan Mingo is the engine, averaging 5.0 steals in 21 minutes a night. Kayden Mingo, a transfer from Penn State, and returner Isaac Williams IV give Drew more quick hands on the perimeter.

Texas has protected the ball well, turning it over on 14.3% of its possessions. The catch is who is handling it. Mikey Lewis, the Saint Mary's transfer, is out after surgery on a fractured right foot; on Nov. 1, Sean Miller said Lewis's mid-to-late December return timetable still stands. That pushes freshman guards like Austin Goosby, Bo Ogden and Joe Sterling into bigger roles. Goosby has started both games and is averaging 5.5 assists, but Chicago State and Gardner-Webb were two of the weakest opponents in Division I.

Vokietaitis and the size gap

When Texas gets a shot up, it goes in. The Longhorns post a 69.6% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes), second nationally. Much of it runs through Matas Vokietaitis, the one major returner, who is averaging 19.0 points on 88.2% shooting.

Texas also crashes the offensive glass, rebounding 48.1% of its misses (20th), while Baylor ranks 132nd in defensive rebounding. The Bears' counter is shot-blocking: their 17.9% block rate ranks 37th, with freshman Elijah Williams swatting two a game.

All of it carries an asterisk. Two games is a tiny sample, and both Texas opponents sit near the bottom of Division I.

Baylor's missing jumper

Baylor has scored inside, but it hasn't shot. The Bears are hitting 24.1% from three, 327th in the country. Brett Decker Jr. is the likeliest fix: he made 47.1% of his threes at Liberty last season and is 7 of 18 so far. Isaac Williams IV, the team's leading scorer this season, has made just one of his nine attempts.

The Bears live at the free-throw line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 51.8%. That edge shrinks if the ball ends up with Dylan Mingo, a 41.7% foul shooter so far. Texas has held opponents to 25.6% from deep, so Baylor may need its guards to shoot their way out of a slump against a defense that hasn't allowed many clean looks.

Tempo and the old guide

Baylor has run, averaging 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes (33rd). Texas has played at 69.8, which ranks 227th. More possessions mean more chances for Baylor to turn steals into layups; a half-court game favors Texas's size.

Last season's final adjusted ratings had these teams close: Texas 37th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Baylor 46th. That is a weak guide. Texas returns 13.2% of last season's minutes and Baylor returns 25.1%. Both teams get a long layoff before tip, with Texas on 10 days of rest and Baylor on nine. Baylor also gets Juslin Bodo Bodo back after he missed last season with an arm injury. For Texas, forward John Clark has a broken hand; as of Nov. 2, Miller said he had resumed non-contact work and could be cleared that week, and there has been no update since.