New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors prediction: Curry's long-range barrage tests a tired Pelicans team built for the paint
Golden State shoots threes better than anyone, New Orleans scores inside more than anyone, and the Pelicans arrive on the second night of a back-to-back.
Golden State Warriors covered the closing spread (New Orleans Pelicans +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 228.5.
- Proven wallets leaned the Under on the total (7 wallets, 70% one way): it won.
| Spread | Golden State Warriors -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 229.5 |
- Expect a fast game of contrasting styles: Warriors threes against Pelicans drives, with New Orleans' fatigue a factor late.
- Stephen Curry against a Pelicans perimeter defense that has held up far better than its interior.
- Golden State is now favored by 11.5 with a 229.5 total; the line has moved from 9.5 and the total from 231.5. New Orleans has gone over in seven of 10 games.
Two opposite ways to score
The two teams take very different shots. The Warriors take 47.1% of their shots from three, 6th-most in the league, and make 39.5% of them, the best mark of any team. The Pelicans take a smaller share of their shots from three than any other team and lead the NBA with 60.6 points in the paint per game.
Curry has driven Golden State's offense. He is averaging 31.2 points and hitting 44.7% from deep this season. New Orleans has an answer of sorts on the perimeter, where opponents shoot 32.3% from three, 6th-best in the league. The trouble is inside: opponents make 60.1% of their twos against the Pelicans, worst in the NBA. Golden State isn't built to exploit that, ranking 23rd in paint points. That leaves the Warriors' most reliable edge as Curry, Yaxel Lendeborg and Brandin Podziemski testing whether that perimeter defense is real or an early-season mirage.
At the other end, Zion Williamson is scoring 21.0 points on 62.8% shooting. The Pelicans also get to the line often: their free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot) ranks 3rd.
Steals fuel the New Orleans break
New Orleans' best path to an upset runs through live-ball turnovers. The Pelicans' steal rate of 10.6% ranks 2nd, and they lead the league in fast-break scoring. Golden State hands them the opening: the Warriors' turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) ranks 24th.
That puts the ball-handling load on Draymond Green, who averages 7.8 assists as the offense's hub, and on a backcourt that will see Dejounte Murray's active hands. Tempo matters here too. New Orleans plays at the 2nd-fastest pace in the league. Golden State sits in the middle at 15th, and every Warriors miss or turnover lets the Pelicans set the speed.
A short-handed Warriors frontcourt
Golden State is thin up front. Jimmy Butler (torn right ACL) and Moses Moody (left patellar tendon) remain out as they rehab. Kristaps Porziņģis is out after stepping away from basketball to focus on his health. Will Richard tore a ligament in his left thumb in Saturday's overtime win over Orlando and is out tonight. Gui Santos (knee tendinitis) is listed as probable. Green and Gary Payton II were questionable before the Orlando game but are not on Monday's injury report.
With Green playing center, rebounding is a weak spot: the Warriors rank 23rd in defensive rebound rate. New Orleans hasn't been a team that punishes that, ranking 23rd in offensive rebound rate. The Pelicans are also short a big, with Yves Missi (knee) out and Derik Queen expected to take on a larger role.
Second night, steady number
Second night, moving number
The Pelicans lost 139-123 to the Clippers on Sunday, so this is the second night of a back-to-back. Their defense was already struggling, ranking 24th in efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). Golden State is 5-1 at Chase Center and 7-3 against the spread.
The line has moved: Warriors by 11.5, up from 9.5 when our feed first saw the game, and the total is 229.5, down from 231.5. The total is where the styles collide. New Orleans' games have gone over in seven of 10, but last season's meeting in San Francisco finished 104-96 Warriors. The Pelicans did take the last meeting, 113-109 in February in New Orleans.
What to watch - Curry's three-point volume against a Pelicans defense that has guarded the arc well. - Warriors giveaways turning into New Orleans fast breaks. - Whether Pelicans legs hold up in the fourth quarter on the second night.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors line movement and odds
| Book | Pelicans ML | Warriors ML | Pelicans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +400 | -550 | +11.5 (-115) | o228.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +375 | -500 | +11.5 (-107) | o228.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +409 | -542 | +10.5 (-105) | o228.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +425 | -650 | +10.5 (-105) | o228.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | — | — | +11.5 (-115) | o228.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +420 | -560 | +11.5 (-110) | o227.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +450 | -600 | +11.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +430 | -600 | +11 (-105) | o228.5 (-115) |
Key players
- Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors): Averaging 31.2 points on 44.7% three-point shooting this season.
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Golden State Warriors): Scoring 21.2 points with 7.2 rebounds this season while hitting 40.4% from three.
- Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors): Playing 34.0 minutes a night this season and making 39.2% of his threes.
- Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors): Running the offense with 7.8 assists per game this season despite scoring just 2.9 points.
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 21.0 points on 62.8% shooting this season, with 2.3 steals a game.
- Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans): Scoring 15.6 points this season and shooting 37.7% from three, the Pelicans' best perimeter threat.
- Jeremiah Fears (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 15.8 points and 4.6 assists this season, though only 28.2% from deep.
- Saddiq Bey (New Orleans Pelicans): Leading the bench with 16.1 points per game this season off zero starts.
Numbers that matter
| Warriors 3-point % | 39.5% | Best in the league, the core of Golden State's offense. |
|---|---|---|
| Pelicans opponent 2-point % | 60.1% | Worst in the NBA, though the Warriors rarely attack the paint. |
| Pelicans paint points per game | 60.6 | Tops in the league for a team that takes the fewest threes. |
| Pelicans steal rate | 10.6% | 2nd in the NBA, against a Warriors offense that ranks 24th in turnover rate. |
| Spread | -9.5 | Golden State's number has held steady since our feed first saw it. |
New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors: quick answers
What was the final score of New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?
New Orleans Pelicans 87, Golden State Warriors 138 (final). Golden State Warriors covered the closing spread (New Orleans Pelicans +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 228.5.
Who is favored in New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?
Golden State Warriors is favored by 11.5 points (Golden State Warriors -11.5).
What is the over/under for New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?
The total is 229.5 points.
When is New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?
Yes: New Orleans Pelicans opened +9.5 and is now +11.5, and the total moved from 231.5 to 228.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).