Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks prediction: Without Haliburton, the Pacers must solve Dallas inside the arc
Dallas allows the lowest three-point percentage in the league, so a Pacers team that can't shoot from deep has to win in the paint against a tired home side.
Indiana Pacers covered the closing spread (Indiana Pacers +4.5). The game went over the closing total of 227.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Dallas Mavericks on the spread (7 wallets, 78% one way): it lost.
| Spread | Dallas Mavericks -4.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 226.5 |
- Expect a half-court grind: Dallas takes away threes, and Indiana's best path is Siakam and the paint against a Mavericks team playing its second straight night.
- Pascal Siakam against the Dallas interior: Indiana ranks 4th in 2-point shooting, while the Mavericks rank 18th defending inside the arc.
- The line has moved from Dallas -2.5 to Dallas -4.5, and the total from 222.5 to 226.5, since the first line our feed recorded. The under has hit in eight of 10 Mavericks games and seven of 10 Pacers games.
The three-point line is closed
The most striking number in this matchup belongs to Dallas's defense. Opponents are shooting 30.6% from three against the Mavericks, best in the league. Indiana's offense runs straight into that wall: the Pacers shoot 32.6% from deep, 25th of 30, and they rank 22nd in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions).
Andrew Nembhard is the lone reliable shooter. He's hitting 40.8% from three while running the offense. Aaron Nesmith and Jarace Walker are both stuck near 30%, and Kelly Oubre Jr., cleared to return in Mexico City after a calf contusion, has made 23.3%.
Indiana's real strength sits inside. The Pacers make 56.9% of their twos, 4th in the league. Dallas defends that area far less well and ranks 18th in opponent 2-point percentage. Pascal Siakam is averaging 21.4 points on 51.7% shooting, so this game runs through his post-ups and drives. Daniel Gafford's 2.0 blocks a game are the obstacle at the rim, and with Dereck Lively II still out after foot surgery, Dallas has less size behind him.
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks line movement and odds
| Book | Pacers ML | Mavericks ML | Pacers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 | +4.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +160 | -195 | +4.5 (-108) | o228.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +160 | -191 | +4.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +160 | -190 | +4.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 | +4.5 (-105) | o228 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +164 | -196 | +4.5 (-106) | o227.5 (-112) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -200 | +4.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 | +5 (-110) | o228.5 (-110) |
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks: quick answers
What was the final score of Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks?
Indiana Pacers 122, Dallas Mavericks 125 (final). Indiana Pacers covered the closing spread (Indiana Pacers +4.5). The game went over the closing total of 227.5.
Who is favored in Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks?
Dallas Mavericks is favored by 4.5 points (Dallas Mavericks -4.5).
What is the over/under for Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks?
The total is 226.5 points.
When is Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks?
Yes: Indiana Pacers opened +3.5 and is now +4.5, and the total moved from 221.5 to 227.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).