San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns prediction: Wembanyama hunts the glass against Phoenix's last-ranked defensive rebounding
The Suns have won two straight, but without Mark Williams they have little answer for a Spurs frontline that controls both ends of the paint.
San Antonio Spurs covered the closing spread (San Antonio Spurs -8.5). The game went under the closing total of 225.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Phoenix Suns on the spread (9 wallets, 82% one way): it lost.
| Spread | San Antonio Spurs -8.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 226 |
- San Antonio's size and ball security should grind Phoenix down; the Suns need a hot night from three to keep it close.
- Victor Wembanyama against a Suns frontcourt missing Mark Williams and ranked last in defensive rebound percentage.
- Spurs -8.5 has climbed from 7.5, though San Antonio is just 4-6 against the spread this season.
Size Phoenix can't match
San Antonio arrives in Phoenix on an eight-game winning streak with the league's 3rd-best net efficiency. Victor Wembanyama is the reason the number looks durable. The Suns have stacked two wins together, but they do it without their best rim protector and with the worst defensive glass in the NBA.
Wembanyama is averaging 29.1 points a night. He adds 12.0 rebounds and 3.9 blocks, and he scored 29 in three quarters in Saturday's rout at Portland. Phoenix grabs just 65.8% of available defensive rebounds, last in the league. Mark Williams remains out after left shoulder surgery, which leaves rookie Khaman Maluach, at 7.4 points a game, as the main big body. Maluach was good against Houston, leading the Suns before halftime off the bench, but Wembanyama is a different assignment entirely.
The Spurs score 53.0 points in the paint per game, 3rd in the league. Second chances against this rebounding unit could pile up fast.
Where the Suns can score
San Antonio walls off the interior. Opponents shoot 47.5% on twos against the Spurs, the best mark in the league, and take fewer threes against them than against any other team.
The crack is what happens when those threes do go up: opponents hit 36.8% of them. That is the window for Phoenix. Dillon Brooks is shooting 46.2% from deep, and the Suns hit threes at a 10th-ranked clip as a team. Devin Booker carries the rest at 25.2 points per game; he closed out Houston with seven straight points to break a late tie. If Brooks and Booker don't get hot from outside, it's hard to see where Phoenix's points come from.
Possessions Phoenix can't steal
The Suns' best defensive weapon is forcing mistakes. They create turnovers on 17.2% of opponent possessions, 5th in the league, and backup guard Collin Gillespie averages 2.4 steals.
San Antonio is built to deny exactly that. The Spurs turn it over on just 12.8% of their possessions, 2nd-lowest in the league. Phoenix also rarely gets to the free throw line, and San Antonio rarely sends teams there, so the Suns can't count on the whistle to make up empty trips.
Vassell's tag and the bench
Devin Vassell is questionable with left adductor tightness, and no update had surfaced before tip. Tobias Harris (left calf strain) and Jayden Quaintance (right knee surgery) are out.
If Vassell sits, Julian Champagnie likely moves into the starting lineup. That might not cost the Spurs much from outside: Champagnie is shooting 44.4% from three off the bench. For Phoenix, Jordan Goodwin is questionable with a right calf issue after missing the past three games, so his status remains unsettled.
A line that keeps climbing
San Antonio opened at -7.5 in our feed and now sits at -8.5, with the total up to 227.5 from 225.5. The Spurs win, but they don't always cover big numbers: they are 4-6 against the spread, including a 112-111 escape against Dallas as heavy favorites. Their games have also gone under in seven of 10.
The start may matter most. The Spurs score 62.8 first-half points per game, 2nd in the league, while Phoenix allows 60.6, 27th. Phoenix did win both meetings in Phoenix last season, but San Antonio took the two in Texas.
San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns line movement and odds
| Book | Spurs ML | Suns ML | Spurs spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -425 | +320 | -9.5 (+100) | o225.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | -360 | +275 | -9.5 (-107) | o224.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -396 | +312 | -9.5 (-103) | o225.5 (-107) |
| ESPN BET | -425 | +320 | -8.5 (-115) | o224.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -400 | +310 | -9 (-110) | o225 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -390 | +310 | -8.5 (-114) | o225.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -400 | +325 | -8.5 (-120) | o225.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -400 | +310 | -9 (-105) | o224.5 (-105) |
Key players
- Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs): Averaging 29.1 points, 12.0 rebounds and 3.9 blocks this season.
- Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs): Scoring 18.1 points per game this season on 49.6% shooting.
- Julian Champagnie (San Antonio Spurs): Shooting 44.4% from three this season and the likely starter if Vassell sits.
- De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs): Running the offense with 5.9 assists per game this season.
- Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns): Averaging 25.2 points this season and shooting 95.9% at the line.
- Dillon Brooks (Phoenix Suns): Hitting 46.2% of his threes this season, Phoenix's best path against the Spurs' interior wall.
- Miles Bridges (Phoenix Suns): Acquired for Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale, he is averaging 16.9 points and 8.1 rebounds this season.
- Khaman Maluach (Phoenix Suns): Averaging 7.4 points and 6.5 rebounds this season with Mark Williams out.
Numbers that matter
| Suns defensive rebound % | 65.8% | Last in the league, a problem against Wembanyama and the Spurs' size. |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent 2-point % vs. Spurs | 47.5% | The best interior defense in the league, pushing Phoenix toward the perimeter. |
| Spurs turnover rate | 12.8% | 2nd-lowest in the league, which blunts Phoenix's 5th-ranked ability to force turnovers. |
| Spurs spread | -8.5 | Up from 7.5 when our feed first saw the game, even with San Antonio 4-6 against the spread. |
| Spurs first-half points | 62.8 | 2nd in the league, against a Suns defense that ranks 27th in first-half points allowed. |
San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns: quick answers
What was the final score of San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns?
San Antonio Spurs 122, Phoenix Suns 96 (final). San Antonio Spurs covered the closing spread (San Antonio Spurs -8.5). The game went under the closing total of 225.5.
Who is favored in San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns?
San Antonio Spurs is favored by 8.5 points (San Antonio Spurs -8.5).
What is the over/under for San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns?
The total is 226 points.
When is San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 9:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns?
Yes: San Antonio Spurs opened -7.5 and is now -8.5, and the total is still 225.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).