Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors prediction: Raptors' turnover machine, with Barnes questionable, tests Memphis's hot shooting
Toronto leads the league in forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds, while Memphis shoots threes far better, and two Raptors starters are game-time questions.
Memphis Grizzlies covered the closing spread (Memphis Grizzlies -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 225.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Memphis Grizzlies on the moneyline (6 wallets, 67% one way): it won.
| Spread | Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 226.5 |
- Expect a fast game. Toronto hunts extra possessions through steals and offensive rebounds; Memphis counters with better shooting and free-throw accuracy.
- Watch Ty Jerome against Toronto's swarming guards. He scores 26.6 a night, and the Raptors lead the league in steal rate.
- Memphis is now a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 226.5; the line has moved from Toronto -3.5 to Memphis -1.5, and the total from 230.5 to 226.5. Memphis is 6-3 against the spread.
Toronto lives on extra possessions
Monday's game in Toronto comes down to one question: can the Raptors steal enough possessions to make up for a jump shot that hasn't shown up? Memphis arrives on a three-game skid after a 6-0 start, and Toronto may be without two of its top scorers. The way the Raptors win is clear.
No defense takes the ball away like Toronto's. The Raptors rank 1st in forced turnover rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions) at 19.3%, and 1st in steal rate. Then they chase their own misses, ranking 1st in offensive rebound rate, the share of their missed shots they get back.
Memphis has the profile to blunt half of that. The Grizzlies rank 3rd in defensive rebounding at 76.1%, so second chances should be scarce. Ball security is the softer spot: their turnover rate of 16.0% sits 19th. If Toronto turns live-ball steals into run-outs, this game tilts fast. The Raptors rank 3rd in fast-break points, and Memphis is right behind at 5th.
Memphis can shoot; Toronto can't yet
The shooting gap runs the other way. Memphis makes 37.9% of its threes, 5th in the league. Toronto makes 31.5%, 27th, and takes fewer of them than almost anyone. The Raptors' defense hasn't helped, allowing 35.4% from deep (20th).
Memphis gets real spacing from its wings. Cedric Coward is hitting 48.8% from three, and Cam Spencer is at 51.6% off the bench. Toronto makes its living inside instead, scoring 52.2 paint points per game (4th). That suits a Memphis frontcourt missing Isaiah Stewart, with forwards Cameron Boozer and Taylor Hendricks filling in at center.
The free-throw line magnifies the gap. Toronto allows the highest opponent free throw rate (free throws per field goal attempt) in the league, ranking 30th. Memphis rarely gets there, ranking 24th in free throw rate, but it converts at 83.9%, best in the NBA. The Raptors shoot 74.2%, 27th.
Who suits up for Toronto
Scottie Barnes (left adductor) and Immanuel Quickley (right hamstring) both sat Friday at Milwaukee. Both were limited in Sunday's practice and are listed as questionable. Barnes is Toronto's top scorer at 23.5 points, and his 2.2 steals a game drive the turnover defense. Kawhi Leonard (left knee) remains out, with an estimated return of Nov. 23. Nate Bittle (foot) is also out.
Toronto didn't miss them Friday. Jamal Shead had a career-best 16 assists and RJ Barrett scored 27 in a 121-107 NBA Cup win at Milwaukee. If Quickley sits again, Shead and Alijah Martin stand to absorb his minutes.
Memphis is without Stewart for a second straight game, and Scotty Pippen Jr. is out with a back injury. Jerome carries the offense, scoring 26.6 points on 57.1% effective shooting, a measure that counts threes 1.5 times. Boozer, the No. 3 pick, rebounds and passes well but is shooting 34.7% from the field.
The market and the shape of the game
Memphis is a 1.5-point favorite, and the total sits at 226.5. Both numbers have moved since our feed first saw the game Monday morning: the line has moved from Toronto -3.5 to Memphis -1.5, and the total has dropped from 230.5 to 226.5. Both teams push the pace, Toronto 5th and Memphis 7th in possessions per game, which fits a total of 226.5.
Memphis is 6-3 against the spread and 4-0 on the road. Its last outing was ugly, though: a 128-97 home loss to Oklahoma City, the first time it was held under 100 this season. Toronto swept last season's series by 13 and 32 points.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors line movement and odds
| Book | Grizzlies ML | Raptors ML | Grizzlies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -130 | +105 | -1.5 (-115) | o225.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -122 | +102 | -1.5 (-109) | o225.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | -119 | +101 | -1.5 (-111) | o225.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o224.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o226 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 | -1.5 (-112) | o225.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-115) | o225.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 | -2 (-115) | o226.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Ty Jerome (Memphis Grizzlies): Averaging 26.6 points and 5.1 assists this season on 57.1% effective shooting.
- Cameron Boozer (Memphis Grizzlies): Posting 15.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists this season, though on 34.7% shooting.
- Cedric Coward (Memphis Grizzlies): Shooting 48.8% from three this season with 8.8 rebounds per game.
- Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors): Leads Toronto with 23.5 points and adds 2.2 steals per game this season.
- RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors): Averaging 21.6 points this season and scored 27 in Friday's win at Milwaukee.
- Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors): Averaging 17.4 points and 5.8 assists this season.
- Jamal Shead (Toronto Raptors): Averages 6.6 assists this season and dished a career-best 16 on Friday.
Numbers that matter
| Toronto forced turnover rate | 19.3% | Best in the league, against a Memphis offense that ranks 19th in ball security. |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis 3-point % | 37.9% | 5th in the NBA, while Toronto shoots 31.5% and ranks 27th. |
| Toronto offensive rebound % | 32.5% | Ranks 1st, but Memphis is 3rd on the defensive glass. |
| Toronto opponent free throw rate | 38.0% | Worst in the league, which helps a Memphis team shooting 83.9% at the line. |
| Spread | -3.5 | Toronto is favored by 3.5 at home, unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors: quick answers
What was the final score of Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors?
Memphis Grizzlies 118, Toronto Raptors 102 (final). Memphis Grizzlies covered the closing spread (Memphis Grizzlies -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 225.5.
Who is favored in Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors?
Memphis Grizzlies is favored by 1.5 points (Memphis Grizzlies -1.5).
What is the over/under for Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors?
The total is 226.5 points.
When is Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors?
Yes: Memphis Grizzlies opened +3.5 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 229.5 to 225.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).