Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks prediction: Silovs' shaky .873 puts a soft edge on Pittsburgh's road favoritism
The Penguins are favored in San Jose despite a dismal road record, and the goaltending on both sides makes that price harder to trust.
San Jose Sharks covered the closing puck line (Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
| Line | Pittsburgh Penguins -142 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Expect a loose game: both teams rank 25th or worse in goals allowed, and Pittsburgh's discipline may be its cleanest edge.
- Probable starters Arturs Silovs (.873) and Yaroslav Askarov (.889) have both struggled to stop pucks; neither team has confirmed its goalie.
- Pittsburgh is -136 with the total at 6.5, and Penguins games have gone over 12 times in 18 this season.
A road favorite with problems
Two struggling teams close out Wednesday's late slate in San Jose, and the market has made the visitors the favorite. That is a bold read on a Pittsburgh team that is 2-7-1 away from home this season.
The Penguins finish a California trip having gone 1-4-1 over their last six, though they have had three days off since losing Sunday in Anaheim. The Sharks are 4-5-0 at home. Monday they snapped a five-game skid when Ivar Stenberg scored in regulation and then delivered the only goal of an eight-round shootout against the Islanders.
Pittsburgh remains thin. Bryan Rust is on injured reserve, Ville Koivunen is day-to-day with a lower-body injury after missing Sunday's game, and Trevor van Riemsdyk's status is unsettled. San Jose is without Igor Chernyshov, who is on injured reserve.
Neither crease inspires trust
Arturs Silovs is expected to start for Pittsburgh, and his .873 save percentage is the number that makes the Penguins hard to back. He stopped 20 of 24 shots in Anaheim. Sergei Murashov won Saturday in Los Angeles, and Silovs' hold on the starting job could loosen if that continues.
The team numbers say the same thing. Pittsburgh's save percentage is 87.0%, 28th of 32.
Yaroslav Askarov is the probable starter for San Jose with a .889 mark. He is coming off a shootout in which he stopped every Islanders shooter. Neither team has confirmed its starter, and in a game between two goalies this shaky, a late switch would matter.
Celebrini shoots, little goes in
Macklin Celebrini drives everything in San Jose: 21 points and 77 shots, far more shots than any other Shark. The problem is finishing. The Sharks score on just 8.9% of their shots, 31st in the league.
They are also outshot most nights, allowing 30.2 shots a game, 30th. Shot share (a team's portion of all shots in its games) tells the same story. San Jose ranks 25th, while Pittsburgh ranks 12th. The Penguins' attack runs through Erik Karlsson and Evgeni Malkin, both scoring a point a game. That is a real edge against a Sharks defense that bleeds chances.
The whistle favors Pittsburgh
Power play % measures power-play goals per opportunity, and these units are nearly identical: Pittsburgh at 20.4%, San Jose at 20.3%. Both penalty kills sit in the bottom half of the league.
The gap is discipline. The Penguins are shorthanded 2.61 times a game, third-fewest in the league. The Sharks go down 3.6 times a game. San Jose is good at drawing calls, but Pittsburgh rarely hands them over. Sunday's late power-play goals from Kris Letang and Rickard Rakell showed the Penguins' unit can still punish a parade to the box.
What the market is pricing
Pittsburgh is -136 on the moneyline, and San Jose is +115. The Sharks are +1.5 on the puck line, and the total sits at 6.5. None of those numbers has moved since our feed first recorded the game.
The total leans on Pittsburgh's games. The Penguins have gone over in 12 of 18 this season, and they allow 1.28 first-period goals a game, 30th. San Jose has been the opposite: just 9 overs in 20 games. Last season the teams split their two meetings, with Pittsburgh winning 3-0 at SAP Center.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks line movement and odds
| Book | Penguins ML | Sharks ML | Penguins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -140 | +110 | -1.5 (+154) | o6.5 (-150) |
| DraftKings | -148 | +124 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (-142) |
| ESPN BET | -145 | +125 | -1.5 (+165) | o6.5 (-155) |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (-140) |
| FanDuel | -144 | +120 | -1.5 (+156) | o6.5 (-140) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +120 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (-145) |
| Caesars | -150 | +125 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (-170) |
Where the money is on Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pittsburgh Penguins: 34% of bets, 61% of the money; San Jose Sharks: 66% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5: 40% of bets, 45% of the money; San Jose Sharks +1.5: 60% of bets, 56% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 78% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 6.5: 22% of bets, 8% of the money.
Key players
- Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh Penguins): His .873 save percentage and 3.35 goals-against average this season make him the biggest question in the matchup.
- Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins): Leads the Penguins with 18 points this season while logging 23.5 minutes a night.
- Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins): Has 16 points in 16 games this season and is finishing at 17.6%.
- Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins): Has 6 goals on 33 shots this season.
- Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks): Leads San Jose with 21 points and 77 shots this season.
- Yaroslav Askarov (San Jose Sharks): Carries an .889 save percentage over 13 games this season.
- Ivar Stenberg (San Jose Sharks): Has 6 goals on 31 shots this season, including Monday's shootout winner.
- Will Smith (San Jose Sharks): Has 7 goals this season, but his -11 shows how often San Jose is on its heels.
Numbers that matter
| Silovs save percentage | 87.3% | Pittsburgh's probable starter has struggled all season, and the team ranks 28th in save percentage. |
|---|---|---|
| Penguins road record | 2-7-1 | Pittsburgh is a road favorite despite winning just twice away from home. |
| Sharks shooting % | 8.9% | San Jose ranks 31st in finishing, which blunts Celebrini's shot volume. |
| Penguins times shorthanded | 2.61 | Pittsburgh is shorthanded third-fewest a game, which takes away San Jose's knack for drawing calls. |
| Moneyline | -136 | Pittsburgh's price has held steady since our feed first saw the game. |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks: quick answers
What was the final score of Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks?
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (final). San Jose Sharks covered the closing puck line (Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks?
No: Pittsburgh Penguins has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pittsburgh Penguins: 34% of bets, 61% of the money; San Jose Sharks: 66% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5: 40% of bets, 45% of the money; San Jose Sharks +1.5: 60% of bets, 56% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 78% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 6.5: 22% of bets, 8% of the money.