Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers prediction: McDavid's streak and Edmonton's finishing test a Flyers team starved for goals
The Oilers bury chances better than anyone in the league, and Philadelphia has neither the shot volume nor a settled goalie to keep pace.
Philadelphia Flyers covered the closing puck line (Philadelphia Flyers +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Philadelphia Flyers on the spread (5 wallets, 100% one way): it won.
- Proven wallets leaned the Under on the total (6 wallets, 75% one way): it won.
| Line | Edmonton Oilers -188 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Edmonton should control the scoring chances that matter; Philadelphia needs blocked shots, a quiet first period and a big night in net.
- Edmonton's top-three power play against Philadelphia's 10th-ranked penalty kill, the Flyers' best unit.
- Edmonton is a -210 moneyline favorite with the total at 6.5; Flyers games have gone under in 12 of 20.
Edmonton finishes everything
Connor McDavid has a point in every game this season, a streak now at 19, and he has 48 points in all. Leon Draisaitl scored twice in Monday's win over the Rangers, the second a shorthanded empty-netter from his own zone, and he has 18 goals.
The odd thing about this offense is how little it shoots. The Oilers rank 26th in shots on goal per game. They score anyway because they convert at a league-best 15.8% shooting rate (goals per shot). Finishing like that tends to cool over a full season, but tonight the burden is on Philadelphia to make it cool.
Philadelphia's quiet sticks
The Flyers average 2.25 goals per game, 31st of 32. They also lose the shot battle badly: their shot share, their portion of all shots in their games, is 45.4%, which ranks 30th. Matvei Michkov has carried the finishing with 10 goals on 29 shots, a conversion rate no one sustains.
There are reasons for modest hope. Monday's 3-1 win at Vancouver snapped a three-game skid, and Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett have been back from injured reserve since Nov. 1. Rasmus Ristolainen remains on injured reserve; he was practicing with the team on this road trip as of Monday, but his return is unsettled. Nikita Grebenkin is out long term after back surgery.
An unsettled Flyers crease
Devon Levi is the probable starter for Edmonton. He returned Nov. 7 from a lower-body injury and made 28 saves Monday, carrying a .898 save percentage this season. Tristan Jarry backs up, with Frederik Andersen on injured reserve.
Philadelphia hasn't confirmed anyone. Dan Vladar is listed as the probable starter, while one projection has Joseph Woll in net after he closed out the Vancouver win. The gap matters: Woll sits at .901, Vladar at .880. Neither has given the Flyers much margin, and against the league's most efficient finishers, the difference between them could decide the night.
Special teams and early goals
Edmonton's power play converts 32.4% of its chances, 3rd in the league, and the Oilers draw penalties often. Philadelphia's penalty kill is the one area where the Flyers rank near the top, at 80.6% (10th). If the Flyers stay out of the box, they take away Edmonton's sharpest weapon.
The first period is a mismatch. The Oilers allow 0.47 first-period goals per game, the fewest in the league, while the Flyers score just 0.55, 31st. Falling behind early against this lineup is how a close game turns into a comfortable one.
What the market says
Edmonton is -210 on the moneyline, with Philadelphia at +175. The puck line at 1.5 and the total of 6.5 haven't moved since our feed first recorded the game Tuesday.
That total is high for a Flyers team whose games have gone under in 12 of 20. Philadelphia blocks shots at the 4th-highest rate in the league, a style that suppresses volume. The over case rests almost entirely on Edmonton's finishing and power play.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers line movement and odds
| Book | Flyers ML | Oilers ML | Flyers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +165 | -210 | +1.5 (-150) | o6.5 (-102) |
| DraftKings | +160 | -192 | +1.5 (-148) | o6.5 (+105) |
| ESPN BET | +165 | -195 | +1.5 (-160) | o6.5 (+110) |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 | +1.5 (-150) | o5.5 (-135) |
| FanDuel | +158 | -192 | +1.5 (-164) | o6.5 (+104) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +155 | -200 | +1.5 (-165) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | +165 | -200 | +1.5 (-140) | o6 (-127) |
Where the money is on Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Philadelphia Flyers: 11% of bets, 21% of the money; Edmonton Oilers: 89% of bets, 79% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Edmonton Oilers -1.5: 90% of bets, 91% of the money; Philadelphia Flyers +1.5: 10% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 55% of bets, 48% of the money; Under 6.5: 46% of bets, 52% of the money.
Key players
- Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers): Has 48 points in 19 games this season and a point in every one of them.
- Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers): Leads the Oilers with 18 goals this season on a 24.3% shooting rate.
- Devon Levi (Edmonton Oilers): Carries a .898 save percentage and 2.75 goals-against average this season.
- Matvei Michkov (Philadelphia Flyers): Has 10 goals on just 29 shots this season, a 34.5% shooting rate.
- Trevor Zegras (Philadelphia Flyers): Tops the Flyers with 10 assists and 14 points this season.
- Dan Vladar (Philadelphia Flyers): Holds an .880 save percentage and 3.27 goals-against average this season.
- Joseph Woll (Philadelphia Flyers): Has the better line of the Flyers' goalies this season at .901 with a 2.91 goals-against average.
Numbers that matter
| Oilers shooting % | 15.8% | First in the league, turning a low shot total into the 3rd-best scoring offense. |
|---|---|---|
| Flyers goals per game | 2.25 | Ranks 31st of 32, leaving little room for error in net. |
| Oilers power play | 32.4% | Third in the league, against a Flyers penalty kill that ranks 10th. |
| Oilers first-period goals allowed | 0.47 | Fewest in the league, facing a Flyers team that ranks 31st in first-period scoring. |
| Oilers moneyline | -210 | Edmonton is a clear favorite, with the total steady at 6.5. |
Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers: quick answers
What was the final score of Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers?
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (final). Philadelphia Flyers covered the closing puck line (Philadelphia Flyers +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 9:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers?
No: Philadelphia Flyers has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Philadelphia Flyers: 11% of bets, 21% of the money; Edmonton Oilers: 89% of bets, 79% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Edmonton Oilers -1.5: 90% of bets, 91% of the money; Philadelphia Flyers +1.5: 10% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 55% of bets, 48% of the money; Under 6.5: 46% of bets, 52% of the money.