Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction: Utah's elite power play runs into its own goaltending problem in Vegas
The Mammoth control the puck and score in bunches on the power play, but a bottom-two team save percentage keeps handing games back, and Vegas is the team that ended their season last spring.
Vegas Golden Knights covered the closing puck line (Utah Mammoth +1.5). The game went over the closing total of 6.5.
| Line | Vegas Golden Knights -125 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Utah should control the puck, but Vegas holds the clear goaltending edge, so the game likely turns on whether the Mammoth power play cashes in.
- Watch Utah's 37.1% power play, 2nd in the league, against a Vegas team that is shorthanded the 4th-fewest times per game.
- Vegas is a -125 home favorite with the total at 6.5, unchanged since our feed first saw it. Utah's 86.1% team save percentage, 31st of 32, is the biggest reason Vegas is favored.
Utah wins the puck, loses the net
The first meeting since Vegas knocked Utah out of the playoffs last spring comes down to a strange split. The Mammoth push play as well as almost anyone. They take 54.3% of all shots in their games (shot share), 4th in the NHL. Then they give the advantage back in their own crease. Utah's team save percentage is 86.1%, 31st of 32.
Karel Vejmelka is the probable starter, though Utah hasn't made it official. Andre Tourigny said only that his goalies are "trending in the right direction." Vejmelka has stopped pucks at a .870 clip this season, and Sebastian Cossa has fared no better.
Carter Hart is listed as the probable starter for Vegas. The Golden Knights haven't confirmed it, and Adin Hill has split the work with him. Hart's save percentage sits at .900, and the team mark of 89.8% is among the league's best. Goaltending numbers this early are a small sample, but the gap between these two creases is wide.
Utah's power play against Vegas discipline
Utah's best path to an upset is the man advantage. Its power play converts 37.1% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 2nd in the league. The penalty kill is the opposite story. Utah stops opponents only 70.2% of the time, 27th.
Vegas tends to deny opponents those chances. The Golden Knights are shorthanded 2.68 times per game, 4th fewest. If Vegas stays out of the box, Utah's most dangerous weapon barely gets used, and the game shifts to even strength, where the goaltending gap matters most. If Utah draws penalties, this becomes a much tighter game.
Who drives the scoring
Clayton Keller runs Utah's offense with 24 points, most of them as a setup man. Logan Cooley leads the team with 11 goals, but he is converting 35.5% of his shots. That is a rate no shooter holds for long. Dylan Guenther is listed as day-to-day as of Tuesday.
Vegas answers with Jack Eichel, who also has 24 points, and Mark Stone, who has 10 goals. Mitch Marner has been a playmaker first, piling up assists while his own shots rarely go in. The Vegas attack is less explosive than Utah's, but it doesn't need to be if Hart keeps outplaying the other crease.
Thin blue lines, real bad blood
Both teams are short on defense. Vegas coach Ryan Craig said Tuesday that Noah Hanifin is out week-to-week after he left Sunday's win in Buffalo following a hit into the boards. Parker Wotherspoon practiced in a regular jersey Tuesday, but his return for this game is unconfirmed. Victor Olofsson is back up front after he was activated from injured reserve last week.
Utah's list is longer. John Marino and Maveric Lamoureux are on injured reserve, and Nate Schmidt was listed Monday with no timeline. Kailer Yamamoto was placed on injured reserve Friday.
The edge in the matchup is real. Vegas won last spring's first-round series 4-2. Utah had won two of three regular-season meetings, including a 4-0 shutout in Vegas in March. Tourigny said there is "no love lost." This is the final stop of Utah's six-game road trip. Vegas, rested and home, opens a five-game homestand after three straight wins.
What the market says
Vegas is a -125 favorite at home, and the total sits at 6.5. Neither line has moved since our feed first saw the game. The puck line has been unkind to Utah, which is 5-13 against it this season. The Mammoth were favored in each of their last five games and won only two of them.
The total splits by style. Utah games have gone over 11-7 this season, which fits a team that scores and allows goals in equal measure. Vegas has gone under in each of its last four games behind steady goaltending. The total depends on which team sets the terms of this game.
Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights line movement and odds
| Book | Mammoth ML | Knights ML | Mammoth spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 | +1.5 (-200) | o6.5 (+100) |
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | +1.5 (-205) | o6.5 (+102) |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 | +1.5 (-215) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 | +1.5 (-215) | o6.5 (+105) |
| FanDuel | +120 | -144 | +1.5 (-200) | o6.5 (+104) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -150 | +1.5 (-230) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Caesars | +121 | -140 | +1.5 (-213) | o6.5 (+102) |
Where the money is on Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 35% of bets, 30% of the money; Vegas Golden Knights: 65% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5: 64% of bets, 77% of the money; Utah Mammoth +1.5: 36% of bets, 23% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 66% of bets, 62% of the money; Under 6.5: 34% of bets, 39% of the money.
Key players
- Clayton Keller (Utah Mammoth): Leads Utah with 24 points this season, 19 of them assists.
- Logan Cooley (Utah Mammoth): Has 11 goals this season on a 35.5% shooting rate that is unlikely to hold.
- Karel Vejmelka (Utah Mammoth): Expected but unconfirmed starter carrying a .870 save percentage and 3.29 goals-against average this season.
- Jack Eichel (Vegas Golden Knights): Leads Vegas with 24 points and a +7 rating this season.
- Mark Stone (Vegas Golden Knights): Has 10 goals this season on 37 shots.
- Carter Hart (Vegas Golden Knights): Listed as the probable starter with a .900 save percentage and 2.49 goals-against average this season.
Numbers that matter
| Utah team save % | 86.1% | Ranks 31st of 32 and undoes Utah's strong puck possession. |
|---|---|---|
| Utah power play | 37.1% | 2nd in the league and Utah's clearest path to an upset. |
| Vegas times shorthanded per game | 2.68 | 4th fewest, which limits how often Utah's power play gets on the ice. |
| Utah shot share | 54.3% | 4th in the NHL, so Utah should hold the territorial edge. |
| Utah puck line record | 5-13 | Utah has rarely won by two or more goals this season. |
Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights: quick answers
What was the final score of Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights?
Utah Mammoth 3, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (final). Vegas Golden Knights covered the closing puck line (Utah Mammoth +1.5). The game went over the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights?
No: Utah Mammoth has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 35% of bets, 30% of the money; Vegas Golden Knights: 65% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5: 64% of bets, 77% of the money; Utah Mammoth +1.5: 36% of bets, 23% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 66% of bets, 62% of the money; Under 6.5: 34% of bets, 39% of the money.