UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors prediction: Merrimack's crawl and a 143.5 total frame the Warriors' home opener
Merrimack plays one of the slowest games in the country, and after a 21-point first half at App State it needs an offense against a UMass Lowell roster rebuilt almost from scratch.
| Spread | Merrimack -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 139.5 |
- Merrimack wants a slow, physical game at Lawler Arena; UMass Lowell's new roster would rather run, as it did against Rivier.
- Merrimack's new guards, led by Denver Anglin and AJ Lesburt Jr., against a River Hawks defense with almost no returning minutes.
- Merrimack is a 9.5-point favorite, with the line moved from 7.5, and the total is 139.5, well above the 133.0 its opener closed at before going under.
A crawl against a 143.5 total
Merrimack plays slow on purpose. Last season the Warriors ranked 357th of 365 in pace (possessions per 40 minutes), and nothing changed in the opener at App State, which ran at just 57 possessions. That game closed with a total of 133.0 and stayed well under it.
The market expects more points this time. The total is 139.5, a number that needs either a faster game than Merrimack usually allows or much better shooting than it showed Monday. UMass Lowell ran at 79 possessions in its opener against Rivier, but that came against an opponent that couldn't slow anything down. The question for the total is whose tempo wins at Lawler Arena. Last season's pace numbers say it's usually Merrimack's.
Merrimack's opener was a warning
The Warriors closed as 3.25-point favorites at App State, then trailed 43-21 at halftime and lost 63-49. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts a made three as 1.5 field goals, was 39.8%. Denver Anglin, the graduate-student guard from Iona, went 4-for-14 from the floor. AJ Lesburt Jr. played 35 minutes and made only three shots.
The scoring gap is easy to explain. Kevair Kennedy, who averaged 18.4 points last season, left for Wake Forest, and Ernest Shelton went to Boston College. Merrimack brings back 36.3% of last season's minutes. Todd Brogna, a second-team pick in the preseason coaches' poll, picked up two early fouls at App State and scored two points. Tye Dorset, the Warriors' top returner, was not among the six players who logged the most minutes in the opener, and no injury news has surfaced.
UMass Lowell starts nearly from scratch
Only 11.2% of last season's minutes are back for the River Hawks. That team went 15-18 and finished 319th of 365 in last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), so the turnover may not be a bad thing. Still, last season's numbers say little about this group.
The 121-57 win over Rivier tells you even less about efficiency. It does show how Pat Duquette is spreading the ball. Freshman Jasiah Cannady came off the bench for 16 points and 7 assists, Elhadji Diallo added 14 points, and Jakai Newton scored 13. Victor Okojie, one of the few returners, started. America East coaches picked Lowell seventh of nine, which fits a roster still finding its shape.
Takeaways and the defensive glass
Merrimack's defense was built on turnovers last season. It forced them on 20.5% of opponent possessions, 30th nationally, and App State coughed it up at a higher rate than that on Monday. That pressure will test a Lowell backcourt of transfers and freshmen. Last season's River Hawks committed turnovers on 17.7% of their possessions.
The Warriors' weakness sits on the other end of the possession. Merrimack ranked 365th, dead last, in defensive rebound rate last season and gave up plenty of second chances in the opener too. Lowell was 61st in offensive rebound rate last season, and Diallo grabbed seven boards against Rivier. If the River Hawks extend possessions, they can keep this inside the number even on a poor shooting night.
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors line movement and odds
| Book | Hawks ML | Warriors ML | Hawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +360 | -475 | +9.5 (-110) | o140.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +360 | -530 | +9.5 (-115) | o139.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +350 | -455 | +9.5 (-110) | o139.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +360 | -500 | +9.5 (-110) | o140.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +360 | -475 | +9.5 (-110) | o140 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +385 | -520 | +9.5 (-110) | o139.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +350 | -525 | +9.5 (-115) | o139.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +345 | -455 | +9.5 (-110) | o140.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Denver Anglin (Merrimack): Took the most shots in the opener and went 4-for-14, including 1-for-7 from three, after averaging 9.3 points at Iona last season.
- AJ Lesburt Jr. (Merrimack): Played 35 minutes at App State and scored 10 points on 3-for-10 shooting.
- Todd Brogna (Merrimack): A preseason second-team pick who blocked 1.3 shots per game last season but managed two points in foul trouble Monday.
- Elijah Wilborn (Merrimack): The most efficient Warrior in the opener, with 7 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in 21 minutes.
- Jasiah Cannady (UMass Lowell): Led the River Hawks with 16 points and 7 assists off the bench against Rivier.
- Elhadji Diallo (UMass Lowell): Scored 14 points on 5-of-7 shooting with 7 rebounds in 21 minutes.
- Christian Jones (UMass Lowell): Started and dished 6 assists after shooting 33.7% from three at Siena last season.
- Kenyon Giles (UMass Lowell): Added 12 points and 5 assists off the bench in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Merrimack pace last season | 357th | One of the slowest teams in Division I, which pushes against a 143.5 total. |
|---|---|---|
| Merrimack halftime deficit at App State | 43-21 | The opener's first half shows how far the rebuilt offense has to go. |
| UMass Lowell returning minutes | 11.2% | Almost nothing carries over from last season's 15-18 team, so its numbers are a weak guide. |
| Merrimack forced turnover rate last season | 20.5% | Ranked 30th nationally, a test for Lowell's new backcourt. |
| Merrimack defensive rebound rate rank last season | 365th | Dead last nationally, the opening Lowell's offensive rebounding can use. |
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors: quick answers
Who is favored in UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors?
Merrimack is favored by 9.5 points (Merrimack -9.5).
What is the over/under for UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors?
The total is 139.5 points.
When is UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors?
Yes: UMass Lowell River Hawks opened +6.5 and is now +9.5, and the total moved from 144.5 to 139.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).