Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats prediction: Cal Poly's veteran gunners test Arizona's rebuilt, size-heavy roster
A Big West team that brought back nearly everyone visits a Final Four program that brought back barely a quarter of its minutes, with RJ Godfrey's eligibility still unsettled.
| Spread | Arizona -28.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 168.5 |
- Arizona's size and defense should control the paint, while Cal Poly's continuity and three-point volume give it its best path to keeping pace.
- Cal Poly's shooters against an Arizona defense that held opponents to 31.4% from three last season, 46th nationally.
- No line has been posted yet. Arizona returns 27.5% of last season's minutes, so its 36-3 record is a loose guide to this roster.
Familiar faces against new ones
Arizona went 36-3 last season and lost to Michigan in the Final Four. Almost none of that team returns. The players on this season's roster logged just 27.5% of last season's minutes, and the Wildcats count 10 newcomers. Motiejus Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov are the holdovers in Tommy Lloyd's sixth season. Caleb Holt, a five-star freshman, arrives alongside transfers Derek Dixon from North Carolina and JJ Mandaquit from Washington. The preseason polls still believe: ESPN ranks Arizona No. 4.
Cal Poly is the opposite. Mike DeGeorge's Mustangs return four starters, including All-Big West picks Hamad Mousa and Cayden Ward, and lost one player to the portal over the last two summers. That makes last season's numbers a far better guide to the visitors than to the hosts. The catch is that those numbers produced a 14-19 record, and the Big West media picked Cal Poly eighth.
The Godfrey question and the injury list
RJ Godfrey, the Clemson transfer projected to start at power forward, remains the biggest open item. In mid-September he was ruled ineligible after the Georgia Court of Appeals granted the NCAA a stay. Early October reporting said Arizona was still awaiting a decision. The NCAA also reportedly determined he would be suspended for the first four games if cleared. Cameron Holmes is the fallback. Godfrey would bring a proven interior scorer: he averaged 12.0 points on 61.1% shooting at Clemson last season.
Mandaquit missed exhibition play. A possible foot issue was raised as of Oct. 14 but hasn't been confirmed by the team. Freshman big Endurance Aiyamenkhue was still out in mid-October, though Lloyd said it wouldn't be much longer. Evan Otten returned from a lower-body injury and played briefly against San Francisco. Ugnius Jaruševičius said he is back at full strength.
Threes against a closed paint
Cal Poly lives behind the arc. Last season, 52.4% of its shots were threes, the sixth-highest share in Division I. It made just 33.1% of them. That volume is the Mustangs' equalizer, and they will need it, because Arizona's defense was brutal inside last season: opponents made 44.2% of their twos, fourth-best nationally.
Arizona didn't stop teams from shooting threes, but it stopped them from making them, holding opponents to 31.4% from deep. A rotation of mostly new perimeter defenders makes that the number most likely to drift. On the other end, Dixon gives Arizona a shooter it can trust after hitting 39.7% from three at North Carolina.
Extra possessions favor the bigger team
Cal Poly gave the ball away on 20.0% of its possessions last season, 346th of 365. Arizona was never a pressure defense, but a faster game gives a sloppy team more chances to cough it up.
The glass looks like the bigger edge. Arizona grabbed 38.4% of its own misses last season, seventh nationally, while Cal Poly ranked 187th in defensive rebound rate. Krivas, who averaged 8.2 rebounds last season, anchors that effort, and Arizona's rotation is markedly taller than the Mustangs'.
Pace and the free-throw line
No team played faster than Cal Poly last season, at 75.6 possessions per 40 minutes. That tempo pushed its scoring up and its points allowed even higher: opponents put up 85.0 per game. Arizona can run too, and a track meet suits a deeper, more athletic roster.
Arizona also lived at the line last season, with a free throw rate of 43.9%, ninth nationally. Cal Poly's counter is that it makes its own: the Mustangs shot 78.7% at the line, also ninth. Cal Poly hosts Westmont in an exhibition Oct. 23, and Arizona opens Nov. 2 against UCLA in Las Vegas, so the first real look at the new Wildcats comes days before Cal Poly arrives.
Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Mustangs ML | Wildcats ML | Mustangs spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +4000 | -50000 | +30.5 (-108) | o171.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +30.5 (-110) | o172.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +5000 | -20000 | +30.5 (-110) | o170.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +29.5 (-105) | o170.5 (-118) |
| Caesars | — | — | +30.5 (-110) | o170.5 (-110) |
| Kalshi (fee incl.) | +9252 | -10645 | — | — |
| Polymarket US (fee incl.) | +4581 | — | — | — |
Where the money is on Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cal Poly Mustangs: 50% of bets, 1% of the money; Arizona Wildcats: 50% of bets, 99% of the money.
Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats stats (this season)
| Stat | Cal Poly Mustangs | Arizona Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 109.0 (169th of 365) | 126.7 (8th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 113.9 (267th of 365) | 88.9 (3rd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -4.8 (220th of 365) | 37.9 (3rd of 365) |
| Pace | 80.5 (30th of 349) | 75.0 (94th of 349) |
| Effective FG% | 54.1% (154th of 348) | 42.5% (286th of 348) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 31.7% (18th of 348) | 45.1% (142nd of 348) |
| Turnover rate | 31.2% (340th of 348) | 14.5% (98th of 348) |
| Offensive rebound % | 43.6% (58th of 348) | 29.3% (221st of 348) |
| 3-point % | 34.3% (157th of 348) | 23.3% (292nd of 348) |
| Free throw rate | 34.4% (183rd of 348) | 50.0% (60th of 348) |
Key players
- Motiejus Krivas (Arizona): Posted a 129.2 offensive rating with 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game last season.
- Ivan Kharchenkov (Arizona): Started all 39 games last season, averaging 10.4 points in 28.4 minutes.
- Derek Dixon (Arizona): Made 50 threes at a 39.7% clip at North Carolina last season.
- RJ Godfrey (Arizona): Averaged 12.0 points on 61.1% shooting at Clemson last season, if he is cleared to play.
Numbers that matter
| Arizona returning minutes | 27.5% | Share of last season's minutes played by players on this season's roster, which makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly 3-point attempt rate, last season | 52.4% | Sixth-highest share of threes in Division I, the Mustangs' main lever against a bigger opponent. |
| Arizona opponent 2-point %, last season | 44.2% | Fourth-best nationally, which pushes Cal Poly even further toward the perimeter. |
| Cal Poly turnover rate, last season | 20.0% | Ranked 346th of 365, a liability in a fast game against a deeper team. |
| Arizona offensive rebound %, last season | 38.4% | Seventh nationally, against a Cal Poly defensive rebounding unit ranked 187th. |
Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats: quick answers
Who is favored in Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats?
Arizona is favored by 28.5 points (Arizona -28.5).
What is the over/under for Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats?
The total is 168.5 points.
When is Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET.
Where is Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats played?
McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, AZ.
Has the line moved for Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats?
Yes: Cal Poly Mustangs opened +28.5 and is now +30.5, and the total moved from 168.5 to 170.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Cal Poly Mustangs vs Arizona Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cal Poly Mustangs: 50% of bets, 1% of the money; Arizona Wildcats: 50% of bets, 99% of the money.