South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons prediction: Chris Mack's brand-new South Florida tests DePaul's slow grind at Wintrust
The American champions return almost nobody from last season, so the early question is whether a rebuilt Bulls roster can solve a DePaul team that guarded well and played slowly.
| Spread | DePaul -5.25 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148 |
- Expect DePaul to try to slow the game and lean on its defense while a Bulls roster of newcomers is still learning a new coach's system.
- DePaul's ball security against USF's pressure: the Blue Demons ranked 291st in turnover rate last season.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings had USF 42nd and DePaul 101st, though USF's roster has almost entirely turned over.
A champion starting from scratch
South Florida won the American's regular-season and tournament titles last season, went 25-9 and lost 83-79 to Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Then nearly everything changed. Bryan Hodgson left for Providence, and Chris Mack was hired on March 25 as the new head coach.
Mack rebuilt the roster with 15 new players: 12 transfers and three high school signees. USF's Oct. 7 announcement said Josh Omojafo is the one returner, cleared under the NCAA's new age-based eligibility rule. An earlier school release in August said no one was coming back, which shows how fluid this roster has been.
This matters for any read on the Bulls. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency, which measures the margin per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, ranked USF 42nd of 365. That rating belongs to Hodgson's players, and most of them are gone. Izaiyah Nelson, who averaged 15.9 points and 9.6 rebounds, has left. Nelson anchored a team that ranked 10th in offensive rebound rate, so USF has to rebuild its interior production from scratch.
DePaul's defense travels into November
DePaul finished 16-16 and 8-12 in the Big East, and Big East coaches picked the Blue Demons eighth this preseason. Chris Holtmann signed an extension through 2030-31 on Sept. 29, so the program has the stability USF lacks.
The defense is the part worth trusting. DePaul's adjusted defensive efficiency, which counts points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, was 100.8 last season, 44th nationally. Opponents shot 47.3% inside the arc, which ranked 38th. The weak spot was the perimeter, where opponents made 35.4% of their threes (296th).
The offense held DePaul back. Its adjusted offense ranked 191st. The Blue Demons turned it over on 18.5% of possessions (291st) and made 69.2% of their free throws, also 291st. Holtmann added six transfers with an emphasis on shooting and size, which addresses those problems. Whether it worked shows up quickly in an early game like this one.
Whose tempo wins out
Last season these programs played at very different speeds. USF averaged 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 34th nationally, and scored 87.5 points a game. DePaul played at 65 possessions, 306th.
Only one of those identities carries over. DePaul's coach and system are the same as last season. USF's pace belonged to Hodgson's team. Until Mack's Bulls show their style in the opener listed for Nov. 2, DePaul's preference for a half-court game is the more reliable guide to how many possessions this game gets.
Availability heading into November
USF will be without AJ Dancler, a projected starter, for the 2026-27 season after knee surgery. The school announced the injury Aug. 31; he was hurt in summer workouts. Joshua Lewis is back practicing but is still catching up after missing time with a knee issue.
For DePaul, Brandon Maclin's eligibility was listed as expired in a July 9 Big East release, and nothing newer suggests he is back. Amsal Delalic missed last season with a torn ACL and is back from surgery, though no recent update has surfaced. Neither program has announced a suspension or an illness in the past three weeks.
What to watch
- DePaul's turnovers. Ball security sank the Blue Demons last season, and pressure from a team of new transfers will test how much the six additions changed that.
- Omojafo's role. He is the only confirmed link to last year's title team and posted a 128.6 offensive rating last season.
- Layden Blocker's start. DePaul's preseason all-Big East third-team pick is the returner the Blue Demons build around.
- The schedule. The game is listed for Thursday, Nov. 5 at Wintrust Arena with the tip time to be announced; neither school has confirmed the date and time.
South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons line movement and odds
| Book | Bulls ML | Demons ML | Bulls spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +215 | -260 | +6.5 (+100) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +210 | -260 | +6 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +225 | -280 | +6.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Kalshi (fee incl.) | +218 | -251 | — | — |
| Polymarket US (fee incl.) | +208 | -263 | — | o150.5 (-148) |
Where the money is on South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Florida Bulls: 74% of bets, 47% of the money; DePaul Blue Demons: 26% of bets, 53% of the money.
South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons stats (this season)
| Stat | South Florida Bulls | DePaul Blue Demons |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 118.8 (54th of 365) | 107.8 (191st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 100.4 (40th of 365) | 100.8 (44th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 18.4 (42nd of 365) | 7.0 (101st of 365) |
| Pace | 78.5 (47th of 349) | 71.5 (168th of 349) |
| Effective FG% | 55.9% (126th of 348) | 45.5% (259th of 348) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 43.2% (117th of 348) | 39.9% (76th of 348) |
| Turnover rate | 10.1% (16th of 348) | 15.3% (123rd of 348) |
| Offensive rebound % | 34.1% (145th of 348) | 21.6% (312th of 348) |
| 3-point % | 45.0% (43rd of 348) | 21.9% (303rd of 348) |
| Free throw rate | 23.7% (279th of 348) | 53.6% (50th of 348) |
Key players
- Josh Omojafo (South Florida): He averaged 11.3 points and 5.3 rebounds last season with a 128.6 offensive rating, the most efficient mark among USF's guards.
- AJ Dancler (South Florida): Knee surgery after a summer workout injury rules him out for all of 2026-27, the school announced Aug. 31.
- Layden Blocker (DePaul): He was named to the preseason All-Big East third team ahead of a season in which DePaul was picked 8th in the league.
- Noah Smith (DePaul): The 6-8 wing is described as a key frontcourt piece in Holtmann's push for more size.
Numbers that matter
| DePaul adjusted defense rank, last season | 44th | Holtmann's defense is the most stable part of either team heading into November. |
|---|---|---|
| DePaul turnover rate, last season | 18.5% | It ranked 291st, the weakness most likely to show against an unfamiliar, aggressive opponent. |
| Pace gap, last season | 71.2 vs. 65 | USF ranked 34th and DePaul 306th in possessions, but only DePaul kept its coach. |
| USF new players | 15 | Twelve transfers and three freshmen make last season's USF numbers a weak guide. |
| DePaul free throw %, last season | 69.2% | It ranked 291st, which could cost DePaul in a close, low-possession game. |
South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons: quick answers
Who is favored in South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons?
DePaul is favored by 5.25 points (DePaul -5.25).
What is the over/under for South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons?
The total is 148 points.
When is South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET.
Where is South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons played?
Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL.
Has the line moved for South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons?
Yes: South Florida Bulls opened +5.5 and is now +6.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on South Florida Bulls vs DePaul Blue Demons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Florida Bulls: 74% of bets, 47% of the money; DePaul Blue Demons: 26% of bets, 53% of the money.