Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers prediction: Tennessee State's turnover-plagued rebuild faces No. 8 Tennessee's suffocating defense
The Tigers coughed up nearly a third of their possessions in their opener, and Rick Barnes' remade Vols just held Wofford to a 35.5% effective field goal mark.
| Spread | Tennessee -29 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154.25 |
- Tennessee should have the edge, and Tennessee State's sloppy, fast-paced opener (84 possessions per 40 minutes, 9th nationally) leaves little margin for error.
- Ty-Laur Johnson and the Tigers' new backcourt against a Tennessee defense that smothered Wofford's shooters.
- No line is posted yet; Tennessee closed -25.25 against Wofford and covered, while Tennessee State failed to cover as a 10-point underdog.
The Tigers have to keep the ball
Tennessee State won the OVC regular season and tournament last year, reached its first NCAA Tournament since 1994 and was picked first in the league again. Then it opened this season by losing 64-94 to Murray State in Sioux Falls, and the box score was uglier than the margin.
The Tigers turned it over on 31.0% of their possessions, a turnover rate that ranks 338th of 348 teams. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, was 35.5%, 329th nationally. They made 22.7% of their threes. Arterio Morris, the Bethune-Cookman transfer, went 0-of-6 from the floor.
Tennessee's defense was stingy against Wofford in the opener. The Vols held the Terriers to a 35.5% effective field goal mark, 39th in the country, and 22.2% from three. That defense doesn't live on steals, though: Tennessee forced turnovers at a modest rate in the opener. Cleaning up the turnovers is the Tigers' most obvious path to staying in the game. If it can't, this one is over early.
Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Volunteers ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +29.5 (-105) | o156.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +28.5 (+100) | o154.5 (-125) |
| DraftKings | +4000 | -50000 | +29.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +7000 | -50000 | +29.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +29.5 (-102) | o156.5 (-106) |
| Caesars | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tennessee St Tigers: 75% of bets, 1% of the money; Tennessee Volunteers: 25% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tennessee Volunteers -29.5: 60% of bets, 51% of the money; Tennessee St Tigers +29.5: 40% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 60% of bets, 95% of the money; Under 154.5: 40% of bets, 5% of the money.
Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers: quick answers
Who is favored in Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
Tennessee is favored by 29 points (Tennessee -29).
What is the over/under for Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
The total is 154.25 points.
When is Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
Yes: Tennessee St Tigers opened +28.5 and is now +29.5, and the total moved from 154.5 to 156.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Tennessee St Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tennessee St Tigers: 75% of bets, 1% of the money; Tennessee Volunteers: 25% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tennessee Volunteers -29.5: 60% of bets, 51% of the money; Tennessee St Tigers +29.5: 40% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 60% of bets, 95% of the money; Under 154.5: 40% of bets, 5% of the money.