Stonehill Skyhawks vs Fordham Rams prediction: Amir Lindsey's 1-for-12 debut hangs over Fordham's home opener

Lindsey needs one clean night

Fordham's first look at its new backcourt went about as badly as a debut can. Amir Lindsey, the UAlbany transfer who averaged 17.9 points per game there last season, went 1-for-12 at No. 17 Kansas in a 95-65 loss. Thursday's home opener at Rose Hill Gym is the first chance to show that night was about Lawrence, not about the Rams.

The Kansas box score was lopsided in a strange way. Senior forward Akira Jacobs made 5 of his 6 threes. He finished with a career-high 20 points. The guards around him did not keep pace. Freshman starter Hassan Koureissi turned the ball over three times, and coach Mike Magpayo, in his second season, said he expects better from both starting guards.

Lateef Patrick Jr. was the bright spot. The Stephen F. Austin transfer averaged 15.2 points there last season and scored 13 off the bench against Kansas. He also used 35.3% of Fordham's possessions while on the floor, so he will keep shooting. A defense with mostly new parts should give Lindsey and Patrick room to find a rhythm.

Stonehill starts from scratch

Chris Kraus, entering his 13th season, is coaching what amounts to a new team. Players on Stonehill's roster played just 10.4% of last season's minutes. The two top scorers are gone: Hermann Koffi to App State and Davante Hackett to Tennessee Tech. Last season's adjusted offense (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 361st of 365, but with this much turnover that number says little about this group.

The opener offered a first look. Senior Jack Medalie came off the bench for 18 points in an 84-56 win over Curry, and junior Felipe Patino added 15. That win came against an opponent with no Division I rating, so treat the shooting lines with caution. Anquan Boldin Jr. scored 15 as well, but he shot 21.1% from three at Florida A&M last season. Trenton Ruth, the main returner, ran the offense with six assists while going 1-of-8 from the field.

Where Fordham bled at Kansas

The Kansas loss came down to the paint. Fordham allowed Kansas to make 74.3% of its two-point shots, and made just 25.0% of its own, 355th nationally after one weekend. Some of that is Kansas. Some of it is a roster still sorting out who protects the rim.

The man most likely to fix it is Rikus Schulte, a preseason All-Atlantic 10 and All-Defensive Team pick. He averaged 10.7 points last season, but he scored only two at Kansas on 14.3% shooting. The returning frontcourt of Schulte, Jacobs, Abass Bodija and Roor Akhuar anchored a defense that allowed 99.1 points per 100 possessions last season, 21st in the country. Stonehill's new guards will test whether that identity carried over.

A big number that hasn't moved

A big number that got bigger Fordham is favored by 20.5 and the total is 140.5. The line has moved from Fordham -17.5 when our feed first saw the game, and the total has dropped from 143.5. The Rams closed as 21.5-point underdogs at Kansas and did not cover, and that game went over its total.

The total rests on tempo. Both teams played slowly last season: Stonehill ranked 336th in pace and Fordham 279th. Both sped up in their openers, with Stonehill at 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes and Fordham at 76. Fordham's new guards and Stonehill's new roster may play a different style than last season's teams did. Whether that faster pace holds decides how many possessions there are to reach 140.5.

Both teams come in on three days of rest. Fordham won the only previous meeting, 71-60 in 2022.