Ohio State Buckeyes vs UConn Huskies prediction: Ohio State's rebuilt offense runs into Na'jai Hines and UConn's rim

A new offense learning fast

Ohio State finished last season with an adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) that ranked 12th of 365. Little of that offense is left. The roster returns just 33.4% of last season's minutes, and Bruce Thornton, who averaged 19.9 points, is gone.

The replacements looked sharp for a half at BYU. Amare Bynum scored 20 and John Mobley Jr. added 14 with 7 assists, and Ohio State led 37-34 at the break. Transfers Justin Pippen from California and Andrija Jelavic from Kentucky started, and Jelavic gave the Buckeyes 13 points and 9 rebounds in 19 minutes.

The problem is the opponent. UConn's adjusted defense ranked 10th nationally last season, and the Huskies lost their top three scorers rather than their defensive identity.

Hines and the Huskies' paint

With Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban both gone in the first round of the NBA Draft, UConn handed the middle to Seton Hall transfer Na'jai Hines. He answered with 12 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks against Gardner-Webb. He averaged 2.2 blocks per game at Seton Hall last season, so the debut was not a fluke.

Gardner-Webb made just 21.4% of its twos, second-best in the country for a defense so far. Discount it heavily: the Runnin' Bulldogs rank 360th in adjusted net efficiency. Ohio State is a different test. The Buckeyes converted 65.5% of their twos against a BYU team ranked 24th, and Bynum went 3 of 6 from deep to keep defenders honest. If Hines can stay home on drives without fouling, Ohio State's offense shrinks to jump shots.

Fouls undid the Buckeyes' opener

BYU outscored Ohio State 60-46 after halftime, and the Buckeyes' defense never found a stop. Cougar shooters hit 45.8% from three against Ohio State, and BYU's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) reached 47.4%, a mark that ranks 285th of 348 among defenses. Pippen and Mobley both fouled out, taking the team's top two ball handlers off the floor in the stretch that decided it.

When Ohio State did get to the line it was perfect almost every time, making 94.7% of its free throws. UConn sat at 62.5% against Gardner-Webb. In a tight finish, that gap would favor the Buckeyes. The question is whether their guards are still on the floor to use it.

UConn's backcourt without Ball

Solo Ball will miss the season after wrist surgery, though Dan Hurley said in late October that Ball could "potentially" return later in the year. His absence puts the scoring load on Braylon Mullins, who opened with 20 points on 4-of-9 shooting from three.

Silas Demary Jr. ran the offense with 8 assists and 3 steals, and freshman Colben Landrew added 11 points off the bench. UConn returns 47.3% of last season's minutes, more than Ohio State. Against a Buckeyes team that forced turnovers on just 11.6% of BYU's possessions, Demary should have room to set the table.

Tempo and the market

Neither team has a line yet. Both opened against the number: UConn closed as a 40.75-point favorite and won by 40, and Ohio State failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog. Their totals split, with the Huskies' game staying under 147.5 and the Buckeyes' going over 160.5.

Last season's tempo points toward a slower game. UConn played at the 353rd-fastest pace of 365 teams, and Ohio State ranked 286th. Both teams get 11 days of rest before tip, so neither side has a scheduling edge.

What to watch - Fouls on Pippen and Mobley in the first half. - Hines' minutes and whether he avoids early whistles. - Mullins' volume from three with Ball sidelined.