Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction: Daniel Jacobsen gives rebuilt Purdue a clear target against Ohio
Purdue's new-look offense found one reliable option against Gonzaga, and Ohio's interior defense looked ready to give him more.
| Spread | Purdue -19.75 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 153 |
- Purdue likely leans on Jacobsen inside while Ohio's transfer guards fire threes, testing whether a rebuilt Boilermaker backcourt can keep pace at home.
- Daniel Jacobsen against an Ohio defense that let South Alabama make 65.6% of its two-point shots.
- No line is posted yet. Purdue lost 72-78 to Gonzaga as a 5.5-point underdog, while Ohio covered at South Alabama.
Jacobsen goes to work inside
Purdue's first game without its old core was a 72-78 loss to Gonzaga, and one player gave the Boilermakers a dependable answer. Daniel Jacobsen scored 22 points in 27 minutes on 81.8% shooting. On a night when the guards struggled to score, the center was the offense.
That sets up the most direct path for Purdue on Friday. Ohio let South Alabama make 65.6% of its two-point shots, which ranks 316th of 348 after one week. The Bobcats rarely contested at the rim either, with a block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) ranking 266th. Purdue is also the bigger team, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.0 inches to Ohio's 76.8.
Last season's numbers point the same way. Ohio's defense finished 296th of 365 in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Ohio's new guards let fly
Ohio rebuilt its backcourt through the transfer portal, and the opener showed the plan. The Bobcats took 66.7% of their shots from three at South Alabama, the second-highest share in the country. They made 42.1% of them.
Kolton Mitchell, the Idaho transfer, hit 7 of 15 threes for 21 points. Jackson Paveletzke, back for a fifth year, added 20 points and 7 assists. This doesn't look like last season's team, which shot 30.9% from three. Only 38.7% of last season's minutes return, so last year's profile tells you little.
Purdue's perimeter defense is the open question. Gonzaga made 37.5% of its threes against the Boilermakers, though it took only 30.2% of its shots from deep. Ohio will take far more than that.
Purdue after the stars
Matt Painter, in his 22nd season, is replacing almost everything. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff are gone from a team that went 30-9. That group finished last season 2nd of 365 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). The returning core is thin: one starter, C.J. Cox, and 41.2% of last season's minutes.
It showed against Gonzaga. Omer Mayer made 18.2% of his shots, and Cox shot 36.4%. As a team, Purdue made 23.8% of its threes.
There were good signs too. The Boilermakers turned the ball over on 14.5% of possessions, which ranks 100th. Caden Pierce, the Princeton transfer, made every shot he took for 7 points and 6 rebounds. Purdue opened 24th in the preseason coaches poll, even though it was unranked in the AP poll.
Glass, whistles and Mackey
Both teams sent opponents to the line in their openers. Gonzaga's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) against Purdue was 64.2%, which ranks 332nd. South Alabama's against Ohio was 51.9%. A game with that many fouls slows down and hands extra points to whichever side draws them, and Jacobsen working inside is the likeliest player to draw them.
On the boards, Ohio grabbed 84.4% of South Alabama's misses, 25th in the country. Purdue rebounded only 22.6% of its own misses, 302nd, a sharp drop from a team that ranked 27th in offensive rebound rate last season.
The setting favors the hosts. Both teams will have 11 days of rest. Purdue plays its first home game at Mackey Arena after opening against Gonzaga on a neutral floor. Ohio arrives off an 86-77 win at South Alabama. The Bobcats are trying to move past a season that ended in the first round of the MAC tournament for the second year in a row.
Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers line movement and odds
| Book | Bobcats ML | Boilermakers ML | Bobcats spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1300 | -3000 | +19.5 (-105) | o152.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +18.5 (+108) | o153.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +1500 | -3600 | +19.5 (-108) | o153.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +19.5 (-105) | o153.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | +1600 | -3250 | +19.5 (-105) | o153 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +18.5 (+110) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +19.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ohio Bobcats: 83% of bets, 70% of the money; Purdue Boilermakers: 17% of bets, 30% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Purdue Boilermakers -19.5: 50% of bets, 63% of the money; Ohio Bobcats +19.5: 50% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 153.5: 50% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 153.5: 50% of bets, 100% of the money.
Key players
- Daniel Jacobsen (Purdue): Scored 22 points on 81.8% shooting against Gonzaga and is the obvious mismatch for Ohio.
- C.J. Cox (Purdue): The lone returning starter shot 37.3% from three last season but went 1 of 5 in the opener.
- Omer Mayer (Purdue): Handed out 5 assists against Gonzaga but made just 18.2% of his shots.
- Caden Pierce (Purdue): The Princeton transfer posted 7 points and 6 rebounds without missing a shot in his Purdue debut.
- Jackson Paveletzke (Ohio): The fifth-year guard averaged 17.3 points last season and opened with 20 points and 7 assists.
- Kolton Mitchell (Ohio): The Idaho transfer hit 7 of 15 threes for 21 points at South Alabama.
- Javan Simmons (Ohio): The veteran post averaged 15.1 points last season and added 10 in the opener.
- Kyler D'Augustino (Ohio): Averaged 18.5 points at IU Indianapolis last season but managed 4 off the bench in his Ohio debut.
Numbers that matter
| Ohio opponent 2-point % | 65.6% | South Alabama scored freely inside, ranking Ohio 316th, which sets up Jacobsen. |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio 3-point attempt rate | 66.7% | The second-highest share of threes in the country in the opener, built around new transfer guards. |
| Purdue returning minutes | 41.2% | Purdue has one returning starter, so last season's elite offensive numbers are a poor guide. |
| Purdue opponent free throw rate | 64.2% | Purdue fouled heavily against Gonzaga, ranking 332nd, and a whistle-heavy game slows everything down. |
Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers: quick answers
Who is favored in Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers?
Purdue is favored by 19.75 points (Purdue -19.75).
What is the over/under for Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers?
The total is 153 points.
When is Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers?
Yes: Ohio Bobcats opened +18.5 and is now +19.5, and the total moved from 152.5 to 153.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ohio Bobcats: 83% of bets, 70% of the money; Purdue Boilermakers: 17% of bets, 30% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Purdue Boilermakers -19.5: 50% of bets, 63% of the money; Ohio Bobcats +19.5: 50% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 153.5: 50% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 153.5: 50% of bets, 100% of the money.