Northwestern St Demons vs Mississippi St Bulldogs prediction: Josh Hubbard's new supporting cast faces a Northwestern State team still finding shots
Mississippi State's rebuilt backcourt scored 106 in its opener, and tonight a Demons defense that gave up 50 first-half points at Baylor tries to slow it down.
| Spread | Mississippi State -21.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151.5 |
- Mississippi State should own the glass; the real question is whether its margin holds up against a 21.5-point number.
- Hubbard and King Grace against a Northwestern State defense that let Baylor score 50 first-half points on Monday.
- The line has held at Mississippi State -21.5 with a 152.5 total, and the Demons covered a 32-point spread at Baylor despite losing 87-65.
Hubbard has company now
Mississippi State's roster brings back just 21% of last season's minutes, and the Bulldogs lost both exhibitions, to NC State and Memphis. Monday night eased those worries. Josh Hubbard, a preseason first-team All-SEC pick, scored 25 points with 9 assists in a 106-88 win over Tennessee Tech.
The bigger news was what came behind him. King Grace scored 23 points off the bench, and transfers Tajuan Simpkins, Thomas Bassong and RJ Johnson all reached double figures. As a team the Bulldogs posted a 68.3% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times), 12th in Division I. Hold that against the opponent: Tennessee Tech ranked 309th in adjusted net efficiency last season. Grace has made a case to start, though Chris Jans hasn't confirmed a lineup change.
Demons searching for a shot
Northwestern State turned over its roster just as hard, adding 11 newcomers under fourth-year coach Rick Cabrera. They didn't fit together at Baylor. The Demons posted a 41.5% effective field goal percentage, 309th nationally, and made only 21.7% of their threes.
Baylor finished 46th in adjusted net efficiency last season, so some of that was the opponent. Cabrera said this week his team has to clean up its offense and limit mistakes. Kai Simpson, a transfer from Thomas More, carried the load with 17 points, while Nathan Ojukwu added 13 and Isaiah Vick 12. The Demons lost Micah Thomas, who averaged 16.8 points last season, so this is a new offense looking for a go-to option.
Where the extra possessions come from
The clearest mismatch sits under the rim. Mississippi State rebounded 42.9% of its own misses in the opener, 63rd nationally. Northwestern State grabbed only 60.5% of opponents' misses at Baylor, which ranks 302nd. More second chances for the Bulldogs mean more possessions for their shooters.
The Demons do have one opening. Tennessee Tech hit 67.6% of its two-pointers against Mississippi State, 334th in the country, and the Bulldogs allowed 88 points. If Simpson and Ojukwu attack the paint instead of settling for threes, Northwestern State can keep the scoreboard moving even if it can't keep up.
Pace and a stable number
Last season Northwestern State played one of the slowest games in the country, ranking 357th of 365 in pace. That changed at Baylor, where the Demons played at 76.5 possessions per 40 minutes. Mississippi State ran at a similar clip in its opener. Two quick teams with suspect defenses help explain the 152.5 total, and both teams' openers went over.
The spread hasn't moved off Mississippi State -21.5 since our feed first saw it this morning. The Bulldogs won by 18 Monday but closed at -18.25 and didn't cover. Northwestern State lost 87-65 at Baylor but covered as a 32-point underdog. Last season's final adjusted ratings put Mississippi State 106th and Northwestern State 283rd, but with both rosters this new, those numbers say little about tonight. The 6:30 p.m. CT tip at Humphrey Coliseum streams on SEC Network+.
Northwestern St Demons vs Mississippi St Bulldogs line movement and odds
| Book | Demons ML | Bulldogs ML | Demons spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1600 | -10000 | +21.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +21.5 (-118) | o151.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +1800 | -5000 | +21.5 (-112) | o151.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +1800 | -6000 | +21.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +2500 | -7000 | +21.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +2000 | -7000 | +20.5 (-104) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +21.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +1800 | -7000 | +21.5 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
Key players
- Josh Hubbard (Mississippi State): Scored 25 points with 9 assists in the opener after averaging 22.1 points per game last season.
- King Grace (Mississippi State): Put up 23 points in 23 minutes off the bench, making 4 of 6 threes.
- RJ Johnson (Mississippi State): Shot 42.3% from three at Kennesaw State last season and hit 3 of 4 on Monday.
- Tajuan Simpkins (Mississippi State): Filled the box score off the bench with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.
- Kai Simpson (Northwestern State): Led the Demons with 17 points at Baylor on a 34% usage rate.
- Nathan Ojukwu (Northwestern State): Scored 13 points on 50% shooting, the most efficient outing among the Demons' top scorers.
- Isaiah Vick (Northwestern State): Added 12 points and 7 rebounds but shot 27.3% from the field.
Numbers that matter
| Mississippi State effective FG% | 68.3% | Ranked 12th nationally in the opener, though against a Tennessee Tech team rated 309th last season. |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern State effective FG% | 41.5% | Ranked 309th after the Baylor loss, the shooting problem Cabrera says has to be fixed. |
| Mississippi State offensive rebound % | 42.9% | Ranked 63rd, against a Demons defense that ranked 302nd in defensive rebounding. |
| Spread | -21.5 | Mississippi State's number hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
| Total | 152.5 | Also unchanged, with both teams' openers going over. |
Northwestern St Demons vs Mississippi St Bulldogs: quick answers
Who is favored in Northwestern St Demons vs Mississippi St Bulldogs?
Mississippi State is favored by 21.5 points (Mississippi State -21.5).
What is the over/under for Northwestern St Demons vs Mississippi St Bulldogs?
The total is 151.5 points.
When is Northwestern St Demons vs Mississippi St Bulldogs?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Northwestern St Demons vs Mississippi St Bulldogs?
Yes: Northwestern St Demons opened +20.5 and is now +21.5, and the total is still 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).