Jackson St Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave prediction: Krystian Lewis and Tulane's foul-line attack test Jackson State
Tulane's new lead guard got to the line almost at will in his debut, and Jackson State's defense has a long habit of sending opponents there.
| Spread | Tulane -12.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 152.5 |
- Tulane should control the paint and the line while Jackson State fires threes and hopes its shooters warm up after a cold opener.
- Krystian Lewis driving into a Jackson State defense that hands out free throws and struggled to protect the rim at Texas Tech.
- Tulane is a 12.5-point favorite with a 153.5 total, and neither number has moved. Jackson State's 33.8% turnover rate bears on both.
Lewis lives at the line
Tulane rebuilt its roster over the summer, and its first night together nearly went wrong in a 100-98 escape against UT Martin. The Green Wave survived because Krystian Lewis scored 40 points. Tonight's visitor, Jackson State, has a defense that may let him repeat it.
Lewis, a transfer from UL Monroe, finished 43.9% of Tulane's possessions while he was on the floor, and he made 94.4% of his free throws. As a team, Tulane's free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) was 69.7%, eighth in Division I.
Jackson State's defense feeds that kind of game. Texas Tech posted a free throw rate of 56.4% against the Tigers, 328th nationally, and last season's defense also ranked among the worst in the country at keeping opponents off the line. Texas Tech also made 72.0% of its twos, 347th. If Lewis gets downhill, Jackson State has little to stop him.
Threes against a soft perimeter
Jackson State plays a perimeter game. The Tigers took threes on 60.4% of their shots at Texas Tech, ninth-most in the country, but made only 20.7%. Dorian McMillian, a SWAC preseason all-conference pick, went 2-of-11 from deep.
Tulane's opener suggests the Tigers will get open looks. UT Martin hit 44.7% from three against the Green Wave, 328th, and that is how a team allowed 98 points at home. If Jackson State's shooters find their range, the spread gets tighter.
Tulane takes far fewer threes, but it makes good ones. TJ Nadeau shot 46.7% from deep last season at Detroit Mercy and went 3-for-3 in his debut.
Possessions slipping away
The Tigers' worst problem in the opener was turnovers. Jackson State gave the ball away on 33.8% of its possessions at Texas Tech, 354th of 357. Ball security was a problem last season too, when the Tigers ranked 336th in turnover rate.
Tulane has hands to punish that. The Green Wave's steal rate was 14.1%, 96th nationally, and Tyler Ringgold and KJ Greene had three steals apiece against UT Martin. Every live-ball turnover gives Lewis and company a chance to score before the Tigers' defense is set.
Ruffin's last ride, new faces
Jackson State's season runs through Daeshun Ruffin. He got an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA and was named SWAC Preseason Player of the Year after averaging 22.0 points last season. Texas Tech held him to five points on three shots. The recap cited no injury, and there has been no new injury report on him.
The Tigers are in their first season under Trey Johnson. Mike Williams scored 11 points in his return from a season-ending injury.
Tulane brought back only 25.5% of last season's minutes, so last season's Green Wave numbers say little about this team. Last season's final adjusted ratings put Tulane 209th and Jackson State 351st, a gap that frames the line even with so many new players.
What the number says
Tulane is favored by 12.5 with a total of 153.5, and both have held since our feed first saw the game this morning.
Both teams went against the market in the opener. Jackson State covered a 38.5-point spread at No. 19 Texas Tech despite scoring 42. Tulane failed to cover against UT Martin, and that game went over.
- Whether Ruffin gets more than a handful of shots
- Lewis's free-throw attempts by halftime
- Jackson State's turnovers against Tulane's steals
Jackson St Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Wave ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +600 | -900 | +12.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +575 | -1000 | +12.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +575 | -850 | +12.5 (-115) | o152.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +12.5 (-115) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +575 | -850 | +12.5 (-115) | o152.5 (+100) |
| FanDuel | +610 | -950 | +12.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +575 | -900 | +12.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +600 | -900 | +12.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Krystian Lewis (Tulane): Scored 40 points with a 43.9% usage rate and 94.4% free-throw shooting in his Tulane debut.
- TJ Nadeau (Tulane): Hit 46.7% of his threes last season and went 3-for-3 off the bench in the opener.
- Tyler Ringgold (Tulane): Added 14 points and three steals in 42 minutes against UT Martin.
- Joah Chappelle (Tulane): Shot 80% from the field for 13 points in 29 minutes off the bench.
- Daeshun Ruffin (Jackson State): Averaged 22.0 points last season but managed five against Texas Tech.
- Dorian McMillian (Jackson State): Scored 10 points but went 2-of-11 from three in the opener.
- Mike Williams (Jackson State): Led the Tigers with 11 points and a 29.5% usage rate in his return from injury.
- Nikk Williams (Jackson State): Pulled down nine rebounds in 21 minutes off the bench at Texas Tech.
Numbers that matter
| Tulane free throw rate | 69.7% | Eighth nationally after the opener, and Lewis drove most of it. |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson State turnover rate | 33.8% | Ranked 354th of 357, against a Tulane defense that ranks 96th in steal rate. |
| Tulane opponent 3-point % | 44.7% | The opening for a Jackson State offense that takes threes on 60.4% of its shots. |
| Spread | -12.5 | Tulane's number has not moved since our feed first saw the game. |
Jackson St Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave: quick answers
Who is favored in Jackson St Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave?
Tulane is favored by 12.5 points (Tulane -12.5).
What is the over/under for Jackson St Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave?
The total is 152.5 points.
When is Jackson St Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Jackson St Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave?
Yes: Jackson St Tigers opened +11.5 and is now +12.5, and the total moved from 153.5 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).