Harvard Crimson vs GW Revolutionaries prediction: Harvard's veteran core tests George Washington's rebuilt roster in D.C.

Continuity against a rebuilt roster

These two teams were built in opposite ways. Harvard's current roster played 66.9% of the Crimson's minutes last season. The Crimson return four of five starters, including first-team All-Ivy guard Robert Hinton and second-team pick Thomas Batties II. That group went 10-4 in the Ivy and finished second.

George Washington's current players logged just 12.2% of last season's minutes. Chris Caputo, in his fifth year, rebuilt around 12 newcomers, seven of them from Power 4 conferences. Eleven of the 13 players who appeared in the opener were making their GW debuts.

That makes last season's GW team numbers a poor guide. Those Revolutionaries finished with the 79th-best adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Harvard finished 153rd. Harvard's numbers from last season carry more weight because most of the same players are back. GW's do not.

GW lets it fly

The one style trait that carried over at GW is shooting threes. Last season's team took 46.9% of its shots from deep, 35th in the country. The new group took 48.2% against Navy and made 51.9% of them. Felix Kossaras, a Colorado transfer, came off the bench and made 4 of 6.

Harvard's defense held opponents to 31.7% from three last season, 60th nationally. The Crimson also allowed the 25th-fewest points per game, but much of that came from how slowly they played. If GW's shooters cool off against a set defense, this becomes a grind, and that suits the visitors.

Harvard wants fewer possessions

Last season Harvard averaged 63.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 347th of 365, one of the slowest teams in the country. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for GW's deeper rotation to pull away and makes each Harvard trip down the floor count for more.

If the game stays close, free throws could decide it. Harvard shot 79.9% from the line last season, the best mark in Division I. The weakness was getting there: the Crimson's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 352nd. The returning shooters fit this plan. Barbour hit 39.6% from three on 197 attempts last season and opened this season 4 of 6 against MIT. Batties made 45.3% from deep last season, though he started 1 of 5.

What the openers did and didn't show

Both teams won big on Nov. 2, and both have had 11 days off since. Neither result says much about Friday's game. GW beat Navy 91-39, never trailed and led by as many as 55. Navy sat 154th in adjusted net rating, a fair test, and GW's defense held the Midshipmen to a 25.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), second nationally.

Harvard's 73-45 win came against MIT, a home opener that tells us little about how the Crimson handle a high-major opponent. The Crimson led by 24 after opening the second half on a 10-of-13 shooting run. Their turnover pressure in that game, 29.0% of MIT's possessions, says little about how they will handle a high-major backcourt.

Aranguren, GW's only significant returner and a preseason third-team All-Atlantic 10 pick, was checked for a possible concussion in an Oct. 16 exhibition. He played against Navy and had five assists. For Harvard, Austin Hunt's health is the open question: he played only 14 games last season, and the program hasn't given a current status. Harvard is also playing in D.C. for the first time since 2019.