Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies prediction: St. Thomas brings the nation's best two-point offense back at Green Bay
The Tommies won the last two meetings by finishing inside, and last season's numbers say Green Bay's defense still has no answer for that.
| Spread | St. Thomas-Minnesota -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- St. Thomas should control the paint and the turnover battle; Green Bay's path runs through slowing the game and living at the line.
- Tommies' interior scoring against a Phoenix defense that ranked 303rd in adjusted efficiency last season.
- No line yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings, 106th for St. Thomas and 217th for Green Bay, frame the gap.
The Tommies' paint problem for Green Bay
St. Thomas has turned this series into a habit. After Green Bay won 64-51 in November 2023, the Tommies took the next two: 90-76 at Green Bay in 2024, then 80-61 in Saint Paul last November. The rematch comes back to Lee & Penny Anderson Arena on Sunday, Nov. 8, at 2 p.m. ET.
The engine was a shot profile few teams anywhere matched. Last season St. Thomas made 62.8% of its two-pointers, 1st of 365 in Division I, and posted an effective field goal percentage (which counts threes 1.5 times) of 58.8%, 7th nationally. That came while taking a heavy diet of threes, with a 3-point attempt rate ranked 52nd.
Green Bay's defense was built to lose that matchup. The Phoenix finished last season 303rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and opponents posted a 52.9% effective field goal mark against them, 285th. They also gave up 36.1% from three, 327th. Neither team's returning-minutes figure is available, so last season is a baseline rather than a verdict.
Few turnovers, fewer second chances
If Green Bay hopes to steal possessions, last season's profile offers little. The Phoenix forced turnovers at a 13.7% rate, 350th nationally, and their steal rate ranked 354th. St. Thomas, meanwhile, protected the ball as well as almost anyone, with a 14.0% turnover rate that ranked 21st.
The glass won't swing it much either. Both teams all but abandoned offensive rebounding last season: St. Thomas ranked 358th in offensive rebound rate and Green Bay 336th. Expect plenty of one-shot possessions, which puts even more weight on shooting.
Green Bay's lifeline at the line
Here is where the Phoenix had a real edge. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 41.6% ranked 35th last season, and they cashed in at 76.6%, 37th. St. Thomas shot just 68.0% at the line, 325th, a weakness that can matter if this tightens late.
The catch: the Tommies didn't foul much. Their opponent free throw rate ranked 56th. Green Bay drawing whistles against a disciplined defense is the matchup inside the matchup.
Tempo is the other lever. Green Bay played at 64.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 312th, while St. Thomas pushed to 69.6, 84th. Fewer possessions shrink the number of chances for a more efficient offense to separate.
Schedules, rosters and coaches
St. Thomas arrives on short turnaround. The Tommies visit Minnesota on Nov. 6, two days before this game, so legs and rotation choices are worth watching.
John Tauer, in his 16th season, returns a team that went 24-10 and reached the NIT, where Seattle ended its run 67-52 in the first round. Carter Bjerke and Kendall Blue both made the Summit League preseason first team.
Green Bay went 18-15 and was picked third in the Horizon preseason poll. The Phoenix lost CJ O'Hara, who averaged 14.1 points last season at Green Bay and is a preseason all-league first-team pick; his new school was not stated. Doug Gottlieb coached last season, and his status for this one is unconfirmed. No injuries or eligibility issues are known for either side as of Oct. 26.
What to watch
- Two-point finishing: if St. Thomas scores inside the way it did last season, Green Bay's defense has little to fall back on.
- Free throw attempts: Green Bay needs a steady trip to the line to keep pace.
- Tempo: a slow, grinding game is the Phoenix's best shape.
- Fatigue: watch the Tommies' energy coming off the Minnesota game.
Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies line movement and odds
| Book | Phoenix ML | Tommies ML | Phoenix spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +310 | -400 | +8.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +290 | -400 | +8.5 (-118) | o149.5 (-106) |
| DraftKings | +320 | -410 | +8.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +8.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 | +8.5 (-105) | o149 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +300 | -385 | +8.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +8.5 (-110) | o149 (-110) |
Where the money is on Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Green Bay Phoenix: 67% of bets, 61% of the money; St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: 33% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -7.5: 67% of bets, 31% of the money; Green Bay Phoenix +7.5: 33% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 149.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies stats (this season)
| Stat | Green Bay Phoenix | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 111.5 (126th of 365) | 113.4 (101st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 116.0 (303rd of 365) | 107.6 (140th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -4.6 (217th of 365) | 5.9 (106th of 365) |
| Pace | 66.0 (322nd of 364) | 66.3 (318th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 62.7% (38th of 363) | 53.2% (175th of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 47.7% (179th of 363) | 49.2% (205th of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 22.7% (308th of 363) | 12.8% (54th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 29.4% (241st of 363) | 19.7% (346th of 363) |
| 3-point % | 45.8% (22nd of 363) | 35.0% (143rd of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 42.2% (112th of 363) | 35.5% (181st of 363) |
Key players
- Carter Bjerke (St. Thomas-Minnesota): One of 2 Tommies on the Summit preseason first team, a core piece for a team that went 24-10 last season.
- Kendall Blue (St. Thomas-Minnesota): Joins Bjerke as 1 of 2 Tommies on the league's preseason first team after last season's NIT run.
Numbers that matter
| St. Thomas 2-point % (last season) | 62.8% | Ranked 1st of 365, the core of an offense that beat Green Bay twice running. |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay adj. defensive rank (last season) | 303rd | Points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents; near the bottom of Division I. |
| Green Bay forced turnover rate (last season) | 13.7% | Ranked 350th, against a St. Thomas offense that ranked 21st in ball security. |
| Green Bay free throw rate (last season) | 41.6% | Ranked 35th; the Phoenix's clearest edge against a Tommies team that shot 68.0% at the line. |
| Green Bay pace rank (last season) | 312th | A slow team against a St. Thomas side that ranked 84th in tempo. |
Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: quick answers
Who is favored in Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies?
St. Thomas-Minnesota is favored by 7.5 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota -7.5).
What is the over/under for Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Where is Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies played?
Lee & Penny Anderson Arena, Saint Paul, MN.
Has the line moved for Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies?
Yes: Green Bay Phoenix opened +7 and is now +8.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Green Bay Phoenix: 67% of bets, 61% of the money; St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: 33% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -7.5: 67% of bets, 31% of the money; Green Bay Phoenix +7.5: 33% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 149.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.