Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons prediction: Idaho State's rebuilt roster gets an early read at Air Force
A Bengals team that returns almost nothing visits a Falcons program coming off the worst offense in Division I, and last season's numbers only half apply.
| Spread | Air Force -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157.5 |
- Expect a ragged early-season game: Idaho State's almost entirely new roster against an Air Force team that ranked last nationally in offensive efficiency last season.
- Watch the offensive glass. Idaho State ranked 73rd in offensive rebound rate last season; Air Force ranked 362nd on its own offensive boards.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings, -7.6 for Idaho State and -21.9 for Air Force, frame the gap.
Idaho State starts from scratch
Ryan Looney has rebuilt teams before, but rarely this completely. Idaho State brings back players who logged 3.6% of last season's minutes and 1.7% of its points, and the Bengals have 13 new players on a 15-man roster. Last season's 13-20 team is gone. Its leading scorer, Connor Hollenbeck, averaged 13.2 points and isn't back.
That makes Idaho State's team numbers from 2025-26 a weak guide. The only returners with minutes are guards Quin Patterson and Landen Birley, who played sparingly. The new pieces include Malachi Johnson, a 6-10 sophomore from Cal State Stanislaus, and junior-college transfer Kenyon DeMuynck. Who emerges in the first two road games before this one will say more than any line from last season.
Air Force's offense hit bottom
The Falcons went 3-29 last season and 0-20 in Mountain West play. The problem was the offense. Air Force scored 91.8 points per 100 possessions, which ranked 365th of 365 teams.
Ball security sank it. Air Force turned the ball over on 22.0% of possessions, 358th nationally, and shot 64.1% from the free-throw line, dead last in the country. The defense offered little cover, allowing an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 56.4%, 356th. The program has added Penn transfer Josh Gatete and five freshmen, so this group will look different, but Air Force must show it can protect the ball before anyone trusts its offense.
The glass is the clearest edge
Rebounding was the one thing last season's Idaho State team did well. The Bengals grabbed 34.2% of their misses, 73rd nationally, and finished 48th in defensive rebound rate. Air Force was near the bottom on the offensive boards at 21.4%, 362nd, and middling on the defensive glass at 251st.
The caveat is the same as everywhere else here: those Idaho State rebounders mostly left. Johnson's size gives the Bengals a natural candidate to carry the trait forward, and Air Force's minutes-weighted average height was 78.2 inches. If Idaho State keeps winning second chances, Air Force's slim margin for error gets slimmer.
Third road stop, second home game
The schedule shapes this one. Idaho State opens with four straight road games, at Utah State and Wyoming before Air Force and Seattle after. By Nov. 8 the Bengals will have already played two road games with a new roster.
Air Force will have one game in hand at Clune Arena, the Nov. 5 opener against Calumet, before this matchup. Loyola Chicago follows on Nov. 11. The last meeting here was memorable: Idaho State won 89-79 in 2019 behind 41 points from Tarik Cool. Tip is set for 3:00 PM ET on ESPN, and neither team has reported injuries or eligibility issues.
Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons line movement and odds
| Book | Bengals ML | Falcons ML | Bengals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 | +5.5 (-102) | o160.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +205 | -275 | +5.5 (-105) | o160.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +210 | -258 | +5.5 (-105) | o160.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +6.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +200 | -245 | +6 (-110) | o160 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +198 | -245 | +5.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +6 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho State Bengals: 60% of bets, 61% of the money; Air Force Falcons: 40% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Air Force Falcons -6.5: 67% of bets, 61% of the money; Idaho State Bengals +6.5: 33% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 40% of bets, 15% of the money; Under 157.5: 60% of bets, 85% of the money.
Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons stats (this season)
| Stat | Idaho State Bengals | Air Force Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 110.0 (152nd of 365) | 94.5 (356th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 117.6 (319th of 365) | 116.4 (310th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -7.6 (250th of 365) | -21.9 (348th of 365) |
| Pace | 71.3 (187th of 364) | 80.5 (25th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 37.0% (348th of 363) | 44.5% (295th of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 59.1% (331st of 363) | 57.4% (319th of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 20.4% (268th of 363) | 12.4% (50th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 29.5% (239th of 363) | 41.1% (69th of 363) |
| 3-point % | 20.0% (347th of 363) | 28.1% (270th of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 44.3% (94th of 363) | 40.0% (135th of 363) |
Key players
- Malachi Johnson (Idaho State): The 6-10 sophomore started 27 of 28 games at Cal State Stanislaus and is the obvious size piece in the rebuild.
- Kenyon DeMuynck (Idaho State): He appeared in 32 games with 28 starts at the junior-college level before arriving.
- Quin Patterson (Idaho State): The top returner played 8.2 minutes per game last season, averaging 1.5 points.
Numbers that matter
| Idaho State returning minutes | 3.6% | Nearly the entire rotation is new, so last season's Bengals numbers carry little weight. |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force offensive efficiency rank, last season | 365th | The Falcons scored 91.8 points per 100 possessions, the lowest mark in Division I. |
| Air Force turnover rate, last season | 22.0% | It ranked 358th and was the biggest drag on an offense that rarely got good shots. |
| Idaho State offensive rebound rate, last season | 34.2% | It ranked 73rd, against an Air Force team that was 362nd on its own offensive glass. |
Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons: quick answers
Who is favored in Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?
Air Force is favored by 6.5 points (Air Force -6.5).
What is the over/under for Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?
The total is 157.5 points.
When is Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Where is Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons played?
Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO.
Has the line moved for Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?
No: Idaho State Bengals has stayed at +5.5, and the total moved from 156.5 to 160.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho State Bengals: 60% of bets, 61% of the money; Air Force Falcons: 40% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Air Force Falcons -6.5: 67% of bets, 61% of the money; Idaho State Bengals +6.5: 33% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 40% of bets, 15% of the money; Under 157.5: 60% of bets, 85% of the money.