Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers prediction: Clemson's rebuilt frontcourt faces Vince Iwuchukwu with Carter Welling sidelined
Two transfer-built rosters collide in Littlejohn, and Clemson's new interior has to prove it can stop the one Hoya big who is already rolling.
| Spread | Clemson -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- A slow, low-turnover game decided inside: Clemson's new bigs against Georgetown's post scoring, with the Tigers hunting free throws at home.
- Dylan Faulkner against Vince Iwuchukwu, a forward and a center who both made 75% or better of their shots in their openers.
- No spread or total posted yet; both teams failed to cover big numbers in openers, Georgetown at -26.5 and Clemson at -22.5.
Welling out, Faulkner in the middle
Clemson enters this game without the big man it expected to build around. Carter Welling tore his ACL in March, and as of Oct. 27 Brad Brownell said he will miss all of non-conference play, with the Tigers preparing for a return when ACC play opens Dec. 29 against Virginia. Guard Zac Foster has been reported out for the season with a re-torn ACL, though Clemson has not confirmed it.
That puts the middle in the hands of transfers. Dylan Faulkner, who averaged 17.2 points at Samford last season, opened with 16 points and 11 rebounds on 7-of-8 shooting against Stetson. David Fuchs added 12 points in 18 minutes.
The worry is the other end. Stetson made 63.9% of its twos, which ranks 303rd in Division I. Georgetown's Vince Iwuchukwu went 6-of-8 for 21 points in his opener, carrying a 32.9% usage rate. If Clemson's new frontcourt can't wall off the paint, Iwuchukwu is the Hoya most likely to swing this game.
Two rosters built in the portal
Neither team looks much like the one that played last November, when Georgetown won 79-74 at home. Georgetown returns 31.0% of last season's minutes; Clemson returns 28.4%. That makes last season's numbers a loose guide, but they still frame the gap. Clemson finished last season 37th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents), and its defense ranked 22nd. Georgetown finished 87th.
The Hoyas were picked 10th in the Big East, and Ed Cooley, in his fourth season, conceded his team lacks a returning high scorer. Jaland Lowe may be changing that. He shot 20.8% from three in nine games at Kentucky last season, then hit 5 of 8 for 23 points in his Georgetown debut. Elmarko Jackson, a Kansas transfer, added 14.
Clemson also overhauled its bench: Brownell lost every assistant from last season's staff. Both teams play twice more before this tip, with Clemson hosting American and North Dakota and Georgetown facing Maryland and Delaware State, so this will be each side's fourth game.
Clemson hunts the whistle
The most striking split from opening night is at the line. Clemson posted a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 71.4%, seventh in the country. Georgetown sat at the opposite pole on defense: Loyola Maryland's free throw rate was 3.2%, the lowest allowed by anyone.
One game each exaggerates both. Still, the shape matters for a home team driving at a Hoya defense that blocked only 5.7% of opponent twos, 273rd. If Faulkner and Ace Buckner, who scored 20 with a team-high 38.7% usage, keep drawing contact, Clemson can score without needing hot shooting.
The Tigers will also fire from deep. Clemson took 49.0% of its shots from three, 64th nationally. Georgetown shot 26.9% from three in its opener, and Caleb Williams, a 37.7% shooter last season, went 0-of-5.
Few possessions, few giveaways
Expect a grinding pace. Clemson played at 64.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 319th, after ranking 315th last season. Georgetown checked in at 66.5.
Both guard groups protected the ball. Georgetown's turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) was 11.9%, 40th; Clemson's was 12.3%, 42nd. Clemson forced turnovers on just 14.1% of possessions, 291st, so the Hoyas shouldn't face much pressure.
With possessions scarce and live-ball turnovers unlikely, the game tilts toward half-court execution: who wins the paint and who gets to the line. Cole Certa, who shot 36.7% from three at Notre Dame last season, had six assists against Stetson and runs that half-court offense for Clemson.
Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Hoyas ML | Tigers ML | Hoyas spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 | +4.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +165 | -215 | +3.5 (+104) | o147.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +160 | -192 | +4.5 (-112) | o145.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +4.5 (-115) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 | +4.5 (-110) | o146 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +162 | -196 | +4.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-112) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -210 | +3.5 (+105) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +4.5 (-110) | o146 (-110) |
Where the money is on Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Georgetown Hoyas: 49% of bets, 19% of the money; Clemson Tigers: 51% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Clemson Tigers -3.5: 73% of bets, 79% of the money; Georgetown Hoyas +3.5: 27% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 149.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers stats (this season)
| Stat | Georgetown Hoyas | Clemson Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 114.5 (88th of 365) | 117.1 (70th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 104.8 (93rd of 365) | 97.4 (22nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 9.7 (87th of 365) | 19.8 (37th of 365) |
| Pace | 66.8 (306th of 364) | 66.3 (316th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 57.6% (75th of 364) | 61.8% (22nd of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 50.0% (230th of 364) | 55.6% (321st of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 16.9% (155th of 364) | 15.4% (92nd of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 33.7% (182nd of 364) | 32.2% (218th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 38.0% (81st of 364) | 43.5% (17th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 41.2% (108th of 364) | 54.1% (17th of 364) |
Key players
- Dylan Faulkner (Clemson): Opened with 16 points and 11 rebounds on 7-of-8 shooting after averaging 17.2 points at Samford last season.
- Ace Buckner (Clemson): Scored 20 against Stetson with a 38.7% usage rate, the heaviest load on the roster.
- Cole Certa (Clemson): Had six assists in the opener after shooting 36.7% from three at Notre Dame last season.
- Vince Iwuchukwu (Georgetown): Went 6-of-8 for 21 points and nine rebounds in 23 minutes against Loyola Maryland.
- Jaland Lowe (Georgetown): Hit 5 of 8 threes for 23 points in his debut after shooting 20.8% from deep at Kentucky last season.
- Elmarko Jackson (Georgetown): Added 14 points and three assists in 26 minutes in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Clemson opponent 2-point % | 63.9% | Stetson's interior success ranked 303rd and is the opening Iwuchukwu will look to exploit. |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson free throw rate | 71.4% | Seventh nationally in the opener, a sign the Tigers' new bigs attack the rim. |
| Georgetown opponent free throw rate | 3.2% | The lowest in Division I after one game, setting up a clash with Clemson's foul-drawing. |
| Clemson adjusted net efficiency, last season | 19.8 | Ranked 37th last season, well above Georgetown, though Clemson returns only 28.4% of its minutes. |
| Georgetown returning minutes | 31.0% | A transfer-heavy rotation makes last season's 87th-ranked Hoya profile a weak guide. |
Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers?
Clemson is favored by 3.5 points (Clemson -3.5).
What is the over/under for Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.
Where is Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers played?
Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC.
Has the line moved for Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers?
No: Georgetown Hoyas has stayed at +4.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 145.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Georgetown Hoyas vs Clemson Tigers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Georgetown Hoyas: 49% of bets, 19% of the money; Clemson Tigers: 51% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Clemson Tigers -3.5: 73% of bets, 79% of the money; Georgetown Hoyas +3.5: 27% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 149.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.