Delaware St Hornets vs Navy Midshipmen prediction: After a 91-39 opener, rebuilt Navy needs its home floor

A champion starts over

Navy won 26 games last season, took the Patriot League regular-season title at 17-1 and reached the NIT for its first national postseason trip since 1999. Its first game of 2026-27 looked nothing like that team. The Midshipmen lost 91-39 at George Washington.

The shooting was the worst of it. Navy posted a 25.9% effective field goal percentage (a measure that gives threes extra credit), last in Division I so far. It made 11.1% of its threes. George Washington is a much better opponent than Thursday's visitor, and one night proves little. Still, Thursday's home opener at Alumni Hall, the first of four straight games there, is the first real chance to find out what this Navy team is.

The production that walked out

Two players defined last season's Mids, and neither is on this roster. Austin Benigni averaged 18.0 points. Center Aidan Kehoe led the country in field-goal percentage at 73.1%, and he averaged 15.2 points and 10.9 rebounds. Navy brings back 40.6% of last season's minutes, so last season's elite defensive numbers are a weak guide to this group. Coach Jon Perry is rebuilding around a guard-heavy core and a freshman class.

The returner who matters most is Jinwoo Kim, who shot 40.6% from three last season. At George Washington he scored 2 points on 9.1% shooting. If Kim finds his stroke at home, Navy's offense looks very different. David Burnett, a seldom-used reserve a year ago, was the bright spot with 11 points and 7 rebounds.

Delaware State reloads

The Hornets went 8-23 last season and finished 365th of 365 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). That number describes a team that mostly no longer exists. Delaware State returns 31.8% of last season's minutes, and leading scorer Ponce James is now at North Carolina A&T.

The new group opened with an 86-52 win over Saint Vincent, a non-Division I opponent, so its gaudy early efficiency numbers mean almost nothing. The names are more useful. Nehemiah Reedus scored 19 and Nasir Muhammad added 18, and freshman Joshua Obiora started up front.

Where possessions get won

This game may come down to ball security. Even in a losing season, Delaware State's defense finished 27th nationally in forced turnover rate, the share of opponent possessions that end in a giveaway. Its own offense ranked 353rd in turnover rate, so possessions swung both ways.

Navy turned it over on 27.1% of its possessions at George Washington, which ranks 335th. A young Navy backcourt that coughs it up again would keep the Hornets close. Size also tilts toward the visitors now. With Kehoe gone, Delaware State's minutes-weighted lineup averages 77.2 inches to Navy's 75.6. Navy won last season's meeting 66-59 at Delaware State, but that was with Benigni and Kehoe.

The number and the tempo

Navy is an 8.5-point favorite with the total at 138.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game. The market is pricing Navy's program and home floor more than its opener.

Tempo is the lingering question for the total. Last season these were two of the slowest teams in the country: Navy ranked 355th in pace and Delaware State 351st. With both rosters remade, there is no telling yet whether either coach will speed things up. A deliberate game would reward patience over transition offense.

What to watch: - Kim's shooting early, and whether Navy's guards can avoid the turnovers that buried them at George Washington. - Whether Delaware State's backcourt can turn steals into easy points against a rebuilt Navy defense.