Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction: Short-handed Raptors need steals to stay close in Philadelphia
Toronto forces turnovers better than anyone, but Philadelphia rarely coughs the ball up, and the Raptors arrive on the second night of a back-to-back without Kawhi Leonard.
| Spread | Philadelphia 76ers -10 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 221.5 |
- Philadelphia should control a grinding game unless Toronto's turnover pressure manufactures enough easy baskets to cover for a tired, thinned-out roster.
- Tyrese Maxey against Toronto's hands: he averages 26.7 points, and the Raptors rank 1st in forced turnover rate.
- Sixers favored by 10 with a 221.5 total, unmoved since morning; Philadelphia has gone 4-8 to the over this season.
Steals against sure hands
The most interesting thing about this game is a collision of extremes. Toronto forces turnovers on 19.3% of opponent possessions, 1st in the league, and its steal rate ranks 2nd at 10.6%. Philadelphia sits at the other end of that exchange: it turns the ball over on 12.7% of its possessions, 2nd-best of 30.
For a Raptors team missing bodies and playing on short rest, live-ball turnovers are the cleanest path to points. They convert pressure into 16.4 fast-break points a game, 8th in the league. The Sixers run too, ranking 4th at 17.0, so any careless stretch from either side gets punished at the other end. If Maxey and company keep their handle steady, Toronto loses its best weapon and has to win a half-court game it is poorly built for.
Who actually suits up
Toronto's injury list is long. Kawhi Leonard is out with left knee inflammation, though he has started individual on-court work. Scottie Barnes (left groin) sat out Wednesday, and his status for tonight is unsettled: he appears as out on one listing and day-to-day on another. Immanuel Quickley is listed as a game-time decision with a right hamstring issue, and Trayce Jackson-Davis has been dealing with an illness.
That leaves RJ Barrett as the primary option. He averages 20.5 points, but his 26.8% from three makes him easier to guard on the perimeter. Ja'Kobe Walter takes on more playmaking and scored 17 in Wednesday's 98-93 loss to Boston, a game in which Toronto trailed by 22 before nearly stealing it. Tonight is the second night of a back-to-back.
Philadelphia has its own questions. Joel Embiid (right foot) and LeBron James (back) were both listed as questionable as of Wednesday. Embiid has been fighting his shot, averaging 17.7 points on 37.0% shooting. Adem Bona and Dominick Barlow are out, and Ariel Hukporti is done for the season.
Second chances and free throws
Toronto's thin roster still has a clear edge on the glass. The Raptors grab 31.7% of their own misses, 4th in the league, while the Sixers rebound just 22.3% of theirs, 29th. With Bona and Barlow out and Embiid uncertain, Philadelphia is light on size to contest those boards.
The flip side is the foul line. Toronto allows a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 36.8%, the worst mark in the league, 30th of 30. Philadelphia gets to the line at a top-10 clip, and Maxey makes 86.6% of his attempts. The Raptors can't easily answer in kind: they shoot 73.6% at the stripe, 28th.
A big number on a modest offense
The market has Philadelphia favored by 10, with a total of 221.5, and neither has moved since our feed first saw the game this morning across 11 books. That is a lot of trust in a team whose record outruns its underlying numbers. The Sixers are 9-3, but their net efficiency of 1.0 points per 100 possessions ranks 17th, dragged down by an offense that ranks 22nd.
The defense is the sturdier piece, 8th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and it has kept Sixers games low: they are 4-8 to the over. Philadelphia is 6-6 against the spread and was blown out 123-101 at home by Boston on Tuesday. Toronto has lost two straight and failed to cover in each. The teams split last season's four meetings, including a 116-115 Raptors win in January.
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers line movement and odds
| Book | Raptors ML | 76ers ML | Raptors spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +333 | -450 | +10.5 (-115) | o221.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +310 | -420 | +10.5 (-118) | o220.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +322 | -410 | +10.5 (-118) | o221.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +320 | -425 | +9.5 (+100) | o221.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +325 | -425 | +10 (-110) | o221.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +385 | -500 | +10.5 (-110) | o220.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +325 | -450 | +9.5 (-105) | o221.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +320 | -420 | +10 (-115) | o221.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Toronto Raptors: 29% of bets, 20% of the money; Philadelphia 76ers: 71% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5: 86% of bets, 100% of the money; Toronto Raptors +3.5: 14% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 222.5: 50% of bets, 7% of the money; Under 222.5: 50% of bets, 93% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Toronto Raptors (9 wallets, $6,686) vs Philadelphia 76ers (3 wallets, $1,270). Largest: Violet-Mercury $3,332 on Toronto Raptors, forecastication4 $1,593 on Toronto Raptors, Half-Defendant $1,200 on Philadelphia 76ers. Spread: Toronto Raptors (4 wallets, $737). Largest: Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $510 on Toronto Raptors, Positive-Console $99 on Toronto Raptors, 0x0d23… $90 on Toronto Raptors. Total: over (1 wallet, $1). Largest: forecastication4 $1 on over.
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers stats (this season)
| Stat | Toronto Raptors | Philadelphia 76ers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Offensive efficiency | 111.3 (15th of 30) | 107.9 (22nd of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 108.8 (11th of 30) | 106.9 (8th of 30) |
| Net efficiency | 2.5 (13th of 30) | 1.0 (17th of 30) |
| Pace | 102.9 (11th of 30) | 102.1 (18th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 51.6% (23rd of 30) | 50.9% (27th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 55.2% (23rd of 30) | 52.0% (10th of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 14.1% (7th of 30) | 12.7% (2nd of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 31.7% (4th of 30) | 22.3% (29th of 30) |
| 3-point % | 32.4% (27th of 30) | 33.7% (22nd of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 49.6 (7th of 30) | 44.2 (24th of 30) |
Trends for this game
Toronto Raptors
- Division underdogs: all teams 2305-2351 ATS (49.5%); TOR 69-78. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Back-to-back vs a rested team: all teams 954-990 ATS (49.1%); TOR 25-32. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4, betting against).
- Road underdogs: all teams 7719-7654 ATS (50.2%); TOR 265-246. No edge at -110.
- Third game in four nights: all teams 6564-6618 ATS (49.8%); TOR 228-227. No edge at -110.
- Second night of a back-to-back: all teams 4691-4696 ATS (50.0%); TOR 158-146. No edge at -110.
Philadelphia 76ers
- Home favorites of 10+: all teams 1648-1747 ATS (48.5%); PHI 50-45. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2).
- Home favorites: all teams 7654-7719 ATS (49.8%); PHI 241-224. No edge at -110.
- Off a 15+ point loss: all teams 3506-3337 ATS (51.2%); PHI 129-123. No edge at -110.
- Rested team vs a back-to-back: all teams 2198-2228 ATS (49.7%); PHI 74-69. No edge at -110.
Key players
- Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers): Maxey averages 26.7 points this season with a 56.1% effective field goal percentage.
- Jaylen Brown (Philadelphia 76ers): Brown is scoring 21.5 points a game and hitting 38.2% from three this season.
- Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers): Embiid averages 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds but is shooting 37.0% from the field this season.
- LeBron James (Philadelphia 76ers): James is averaging 6.5 assists and 7.2 rebounds this season while listed questionable with a back issue.
- RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors): Barrett averages 20.5 points this season but is shooting 26.8% from three.
- Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors): Walter is hitting 35.1% from three this season and scored 17 against Boston on Wednesday.
- Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors): Quickley averages 16.7 points and 5.6 assists this season when available.
- Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors): Barnes leads Toronto at 23.5 points and 2.2 steals a game across eight appearances this season.
Numbers that matter
| Raptors forced turnover rate | 19.3% | 1st in the league, Toronto's best route to easy points. |
|---|---|---|
| Sixers turnover rate | 12.7% | 2nd-best in the league, which blunts Toronto's pressure. |
| Raptors opponent free throw rate | 36.8% | Worst in the league, an opening for a Philadelphia team that gets to the line. |
| Sixers offensive rebound % | 22.3% | 29th of 30, against a Raptors team that ranks 4th on its own glass. |
| Spread | -10 | Philadelphia's line hasn't moved since the morning despite questionable tags on Embiid and James. |
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers: quick answers
Who is favored in Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Philadelphia 76ers is favored by 10 points (Philadelphia 76ers -10).
What is the over/under for Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers?
The total is 221.5 points.
When is Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers played?
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia.
Has the line moved for Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Yes: Toronto Raptors opened +8.5 and is now +10.5, and the total moved from 220.5 to 221.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Toronto Raptors: 29% of bets, 20% of the money; Philadelphia 76ers: 71% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5: 86% of bets, 100% of the money; Toronto Raptors +3.5: 14% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 222.5: 50% of bets, 7% of the money; Under 222.5: 50% of bets, 93% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Toronto Raptors (9 wallets, $6,686) vs Philadelphia 76ers (3 wallets, $1,270). Largest: Violet-Mercury $3,332 on Toronto Raptors, forecastication4 $1,593 on Toronto Raptors, Half-Defendant $1,200 on Philadelphia 76ers. Spread: Toronto Raptors (4 wallets, $737). Largest: Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $510 on Toronto Raptors, Positive-Console $99 on Toronto Raptors, 0x0d23… $90 on Toronto Raptors. Total: over (1 wallet, $1). Largest: forecastication4 $1 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.