Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction: Cooper Flagg tests Minnesota's top-ranked defense without Lively behind him
Dallas brings a hot teenager and three straight wins to Minneapolis, but the Wolves' defense and their edge on the glass are built to slow both.
| Spread | Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 227.5 |
- Minnesota's defense grinds the game into the half court, and its offensive rebounding piles up extra possessions while Dallas plays without Dereck Lively II.
- Cooper Flagg against the league's stingiest defense: he's scoring 25.9 a night but shooting 29.2% from three.
- Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite, unchanged since our feed first saw the line, and the Wolves are 10-1 against the spread.
Flagg runs into the wall
Cooper Flagg arrives in Minneapolis carrying the best night of his young career. He scored a season-high 43 points Monday against Indiana, and his mid-range jumper with 26 seconds left sealed a comeback from a 13-point hole. That win made it three straight for Dallas.
Thursday's opponent is a different problem. Minnesota allows 103.2 points per 100 possessions, the best defense in the league. Opponents post an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 49.7% against the Wolves, 3rd-lowest of 30 teams.
Flagg's game lives inside the arc. He shoots 50.0% overall but just 29.2% from deep, and Dallas makes 56.9% of its twos, 4th in the league. Minnesota holds opponents to 50.8% on twos, 5th-best. Something in that collision decides whether Flagg's 6.9 assists turn into layups or kick-outs to shooters who aren't hitting. Beyond Kyrie Irving, the Dallas perimeter has been cold: Max Christie is at 26.2% from three and Zaccharie Risacher at 25.0%.
Wolves keep winning without Edwards
Anthony Edwards is out after arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, with an estimated return of Dec. 21. Donte DiVincenzo remains out after Achilles surgery. Minnesota has gone 5-2 in the games Edwards has missed and enters on a four-game winning streak.
Ayo Dosunmu has filled the scoring gap. He averages 18.1 points and is making 46.7% of his threes. LaMelo Ball runs the offense with 6.0 assists a game and has taken 97 threes, the most of any player listed for either team. Rudy Gobert anchors the back line, and the Wolves allow just 53.4 first-half points a game, 5th-fewest.
The glass is the leverage point
Dallas is thin in the frontcourt. Lively, recovering from right foot surgery, is listed out on the league injury report; one listing still calls him a game-time decision, so his status isn't fully settled. Sergio de Larrea (knee) and Tarik Biberovic (heel) are out, and rookie Morez Johnson Jr. is probable after missing Monday's game with a shin bruise.
That matters most on the boards. Minnesota grabs 31.8% of its own misses, 3rd in the league, while Dallas ranks 22nd in defensive rebound percentage. Gobert pulls down 12.1 rebounds a game. Daniel Gafford, Dallas's starter in the middle, plays only 22.1 minutes, and the Mavericks have been closing games without a center.
Dallas does have one counter. Minnesota is the worst free throw shooting team in the league at 67.0%, and Gobert makes 41.5% of his attempts. Close games against this team can be decided at the line.
What the market sees
Minnesota is favored by 5.5 with a total of 227.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded them. The Wolves have covered in 10 of 11 games, including a cover as a 12.5-point underdog at San Antonio.
Dallas has been an under team, going 3-8 on totals. Four of its last five games stayed under; the exception was Monday's 125-122 shootout with Indiana, which closed at this same 227.5. Minnesota swept all four meetings last season, the last a 124-94 win in Dallas. The Mavericks open a three-game road trip here.
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves line movement and odds
| Book | Mavericks ML | Timberwolves ML | Mavericks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 | +5.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +170 | -220 | +5.5 (-112) | o227.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +184 | -222 | +5.5 (-106) | o227.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +180 | -215 | +5.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +180 | -220 | +5.5 (-110) | o227.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +176 | -210 | +5.5 (-110) | o226.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +175 | -210 | +5.5 (-110) | o226.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +185 | -225 | +5.5 (-110) | o226.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dallas Mavericks: 54% of bets, 42% of the money; Minnesota Timberwolves: 46% of bets, 58% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5: 37% of bets, 14% of the money; Dallas Mavericks +5.5: 63% of bets, 86% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 227.5: 50% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 227.5: 50% of bets, 20% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks (1 wallet, $660) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (4 wallets, $6,899). Largest: Positive-Console $6,500 on Minnesota Timberwolves, Tys0n8686 $660 on Dallas Mavericks, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $249 on Minnesota Timberwolves. Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves (1 wallet, $451). Largest: Positive-Console $451 on Minnesota Timberwolves. Total: over (1 wallet, $760) vs under (1 wallet, $82). Largest: 0x6387… $760 on over, 0x0d23… $82 on under.
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves stats (this season)
| Stat | Dallas Mavericks | Minnesota Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-4 | 8-3 |
| Offensive efficiency | 112.4 (11th of 30) | 113.9 (9th of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 107.9 (9th of 30) | 103.2 (1st of 30) |
| Net efficiency | 4.5 (11th of 30) | 10.7 (3rd of 30) |
| Pace | 102.2 (17th of 30) | 103.7 (6th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 54.8% (10th of 30) | 55.3% (4th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 51.9% (9th of 30) | 49.7% (3rd of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 15.9% (22nd of 30) | 15.3% (16th of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 29.9% (8th of 30) | 31.8% (3rd of 30) |
| 3-point % | 34.5% (19th of 30) | 37.3% (8th of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 48.9 (10th of 30) | 50.4 (4th of 30) |
Trends for this game
Dallas Mavericks
- Road underdogs: all teams 7719-7654 ATS (50.2%); DAL 268-232. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3).
- Lost the last meeting by 15+: all teams 3428-3380 ATS (50.4%); DAL 107-97. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2).
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home favorites: all teams 7654-7719 ATS (49.8%); MIN 179-225. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 11, betting against).
- Off a 15+ point win: all teams 3488-3430 ATS (50.4%); MIN 82-102. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 5, betting against).
- On a 4+ game win streak: all teams 2089-2198 ATS (48.7%); MIN 15-37. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 464, betting against).
Key players
- Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks): Averages 25.9 points and 6.9 assists this season, but is shooting 29.2% from three.
- Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks): Scoring 22.9 points this season and is Dallas's best shooter at 39.5% from three.
- Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks): Converts 71.2% of his shots and blocks 1.8 a game, with Lively listed out.
- Ayo Dosunmu (Minnesota Timberwolves): Leads Minnesota at 18.1 points this season while hitting 46.7% of his threes.
- LaMelo Ball (Minnesota Timberwolves): Averages 18.3 points and 6.0 assists, with 37 made threes this season.
- Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves): Pulls down 12.1 rebounds a game but shoots 41.5% at the line this season.
Numbers that matter
| Minnesota defensive efficiency | 103.2 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 1st of 30 teams, the wall Flagg has to solve. |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota offensive rebound % | 31.8% | 3rd in the league, against a Dallas defensive rebounding unit ranked 22nd and missing Lively. |
| Minnesota ATS record | 10-1 | The Wolves have covered almost every number set for them this season. |
| Dallas over/under record | 3-8 | Dallas games have leaned under, with the total here at 227.5. |
| Minnesota free throw % | 67.0% | Worst in the league, a crack Dallas can exploit in a close finish. |
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves: quick answers
Who is favored in Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
Minnesota Timberwolves is favored by 5.5 points (Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5).
What is the over/under for Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
The total is 227.5 points.
When is Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Where is Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves played?
Target Center, Minneapolis.
Has the line moved for Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
Yes: Dallas Mavericks opened +4.5 and is now +5.5, and the total moved from 225.5 to 227.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dallas Mavericks: 54% of bets, 42% of the money; Minnesota Timberwolves: 46% of bets, 58% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5: 37% of bets, 14% of the money; Dallas Mavericks +5.5: 63% of bets, 86% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 227.5: 50% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 227.5: 50% of bets, 20% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks (1 wallet, $660) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (4 wallets, $6,899). Largest: Positive-Console $6,500 on Minnesota Timberwolves, Tys0n8686 $660 on Dallas Mavericks, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $249 on Minnesota Timberwolves. Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves (1 wallet, $451). Largest: Positive-Console $451 on Minnesota Timberwolves. Total: over (1 wallet, $760) vs under (1 wallet, $82). Largest: 0x6387… $760 on over, 0x0d23… $82 on under. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.