Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns prediction: Miller out, Hornets lean on the glass to stay with Booker's Suns
Charlotte owns the league's best offensive rebounding and its worst offense, and without Brandon Miller it needs every extra possession against a Phoenix team that can't finish defensive stops.
| Spread | Phoenix Suns -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 214.5 |
- Phoenix likely wins the shooting and turnover battles; Charlotte stays within range only if second chances pile up against the league's worst defensive rebounding team.
- Naz Reid and Moussa Diabate on the offensive glass against Phoenix, which ranks 30th of 30 in defensive rebound percentage.
- Suns -6.5 with a 214.5 total, unchanged since our feed first saw it; Charlotte's offense ranks 30th at 100.3 points per 100 possessions.
Charlotte runs out of scorers
The Hornets were already the least efficient offense in the league, scoring 100.3 points per 100 possessions (30th of 30). Now they arrive in Phoenix without their leading scorer. Brandon Miller is listed out Thursday with right groin soreness, and he had been carrying the load at 20.6 points per game even while shooting 26.0% from three. Miller is listed out on the latest report, though some sources had him day-to-day earlier Thursday.
The list keeps going. Kon Knueppel strained his left hamstring and won't be re-evaluated for four weeks. Dennis Schroder was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain on Nov. 8 and given a two-week re-evaluation window, though his status Thursday is unsettled. Moussa Diabate (quad) is probable, and Grant Williams (hamstring) is also tagged probable.
That leaves Grayson Allen as the most reliable shot-maker. He is averaging 15.3 points and hitting 46.9% of his threes, and he scored 27 in Monday's win over Cleveland, which snapped a six-game skid. Reid added 25 points and 13 rebounds that night.
Extra possessions against lost ones
This is where Charlotte has a real edge. The Hornets grab 32.4% of their own misses, the best offensive rebound rate in the league, and Phoenix rebounds just 67.1% of opponents' misses on defense, 30th of 30. Reid (8.5 rebounds a night) and Diabate (9.1) should get chances all evening.
The problem is that Charlotte gives those possessions right back. The Hornets turn it over on 19.2% of their trips, last in the league, and Phoenix forces turnovers at the 8th-highest rate. If Charlotte coughs it up at its usual clip, the offensive glass only keeps it level instead of putting it ahead.
Threes at both ends
No team leans on the three like Charlotte: more than half its shots, 51.3% of attempts, come from deep, the highest rate in the league. It makes them at 30.8% (28th), and losing Miller removes a lot of the volume.
Phoenix shoots it far better, at 37.7% (6th), and made a season-high 22 threes in Tuesday's 133-110 rout of the Clippers. Charlotte's perimeter defense has been the league's softest, with opponents hitting 40.8% from three (30th). Dillon Brooks, at 42.2% on his threes, is the Sun most likely to punish that. Devin Booker leads Phoenix at 25.1 points per game.
The counterweight is pace. Charlotte plays the second-slowest tempo in the league (29th), and Phoenix sits 24th, so neither team gets many possessions to build a big lead.
Old teammates, a steady line
Miles Bridges faces the franchise he played for before the trade that sent Allen and Royce O'Neale to Charlotte. Bridges is averaging 15.0 points and 7.4 rebounds in Phoenix. The teams split two meetings last season, each winning at home.
The market hasn't budged: Phoenix -6.5 and a 214.5 total, unchanged since our feed first recorded it Thursday morning. Neither side has rewarded backers. Charlotte is 4-7 against the spread and Phoenix 3-7. The totals pull in opposite directions, with Hornets games going under seven times in 11 and Suns games going over six times in 10. Phoenix is 4-3 at home, Charlotte 1-3 on the road.
What to watch
- Charlotte's offensive rebounds against its turnovers: whichever count is higher likely tells you where the margin lands.
- Allen's volume with Miller out, against Phoenix's 25th-ranked three-point defense.
- Whether Booker's minutes are managed in what could turn into a lopsided game.
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns line movement and odds
| Book | Hornets ML | Suns ML | Hornets spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 | +6.5 (-110) | o214.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +195 | -245 | +6.5 (-110) | o213.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +201 | -244 | +6.5 (-112) | o214.5 (-107) |
| ESPN BET | +195 | -230 | +6.5 (-120) | o214.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +200 | -245 | +6.5 (-110) | o214.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +205 | -245 | +6.5 (-106) | o213.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +200 | -250 | +6.5 (-110) | o213.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +205 | -250 | +6.5 (-115) | o214 (-115) |
Where the money is on Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns
On the Kalshi moneyline: Charlotte Hornets: 34% of bets, 15% of the money; Phoenix Suns: 66% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Phoenix Suns -7.5: 57% of bets, 1% of the money; Charlotte Hornets +7.5: 43% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 188.5: 75% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 188.5: 25% of bets, 1% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets (2 wallets, $21). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $12 on Charlotte Hornets, Rubbery-Policy $10 on Charlotte Hornets. Total: over (1 wallet, $13) vs under (1 wallet, $761). Largest: 0x6387… $761 on under, Infatuated-Flugelhorn $13 on over.
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns stats (this season)
| Stat | Charlotte Hornets | Phoenix Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Offensive efficiency | 100.3 (30th of 30) | 111.1 (16th of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 112.0 (21st of 30) | 116.4 (26th of 30) |
| Net efficiency | -11.7 (27th of 30) | -5.2 (21st of 30) |
| Pace | 98.5 (29th of 30) | 101.5 (24th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 48.0% (30th of 30) | 55.0% (9th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 56.3% (25th of 30) | 55.1% (22nd of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 19.2% (30th of 30) | 14.3% (9th of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 32.4% (1st of 30) | 25.1% (22nd of 30) |
| 3-point % | 30.8% (28th of 30) | 37.7% (6th of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 37.3 (30th of 30) | 45.8 (17th of 30) |
Trends for this game
Charlotte Hornets
- Road underdogs: all teams 7719-7654 ATS (50.2%); CHA 292-324. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
Phoenix Suns
- Off a 15+ point win: all teams 3488-3430 ATS (50.4%); PHX 97-118. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4, betting against).
- Home favorites: all teams 7654-7719 ATS (49.8%); PHX 252-259. No edge at -110.
- Third game in four nights: all teams 6564-6618 ATS (49.8%); PHX 220-219. No edge at -110.
- Lost the last meeting by 15+: all teams 3428-3380 ATS (50.4%); PHX 118-128. No edge at -110.
Key players
- Grayson Allen (Charlotte Hornets): Averaging 15.3 points on 46.9% from three for Charlotte this season after the trade from Phoenix.
- Naz Reid (Charlotte Hornets): Putting up 17.4 points and 8.5 rebounds a night this season for Charlotte.
- Moussa Diabate (Charlotte Hornets): Averaging 9.1 rebounds and shooting 63.5% from the field this season.
- Sion James (Charlotte Hornets): Shooting 26.9% from three this season, part of a backcourt that struggles to score.
- Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns): Averaging 25.1 points and 4.8 assists this season with 93.7% free throw shooting.
- Miles Bridges (Phoenix Suns): Posting 15.0 points and 7.4 rebounds this season in his first year with Phoenix.
- Dillon Brooks (Phoenix Suns): Hitting 42.2% of his threes this season, averaging 14.9 points.
- Khaman Maluach (Phoenix Suns): Shooting 61.5% from the field with 6.4 rebounds in 19.9 minutes this season.
Numbers that matter
| Hornets offensive rebound % | 32.4% | Best in the league, and the clearest path for Charlotte to stay close. |
|---|---|---|
| Suns defensive rebound % | 67.1% | Last of 30, so Phoenix gives up second chances to everyone. |
| Hornets turnover rate | 19.2% | Worst in the league, against a Phoenix defense that ranks 8th in forcing turnovers. |
| Hornets opponent 3-point % | 40.8% | Last in the league, facing a Suns offense that ranks 6th from deep. |
| Suns spread | -6.5 | Unchanged since our feed first saw the line Thursday morning. |
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns: quick answers
Who is favored in Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns?
Phoenix Suns is favored by 6.5 points (Phoenix Suns -6.5).
What is the over/under for Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns?
The total is 214.5 points.
When is Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 9:10 PM ET.
Where is Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns played?
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix.
Has the line moved for Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns?
No: Charlotte Hornets has stayed at +6.5, and the total moved from 212.5 to 214.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Charlotte Hornets: 34% of bets, 15% of the money; Phoenix Suns: 66% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Phoenix Suns -7.5: 57% of bets, 1% of the money; Charlotte Hornets +7.5: 43% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 188.5: 75% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 188.5: 25% of bets, 1% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets (2 wallets, $21). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $12 on Charlotte Hornets, Rubbery-Policy $10 on Charlotte Hornets. Total: over (1 wallet, $13) vs under (1 wallet, $761). Largest: 0x6387… $761 on under, Infatuated-Flugelhorn $13 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.