Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs prediction: Thunder open in San Antonio chasing payback for last spring's West final

Seven games of unfinished business

The last time these teams shared a floor that mattered, San Antonio won a seven-game Western Conference Finals and Victor Wembanyama walked off with the series MVP. The Spurs then fell short in the Finals. Their shorter offseason ends tonight against the Thunder, the other co-title favorite, in the last of three games on the league's opening-night slate.

San Antonio returns almost everything. Players on the current roster logged 93.9% of the Spurs' minutes last season, and Mitch Johnson plans to start the same five: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell and Wembanyama. Oklahoma City kept its core but returns 69.9% of last season's minutes after Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins left. Joe is the loss that stings most in a half-court game: he hit 42.3% from three on 428 attempts.

The regular season leaned San Antonio's way too. The Spurs took the first three meetings last season, starting with a 111-109 win on a neutral floor, before the Thunder answered 119-98 in January. San Antonio closed the season series 116-106 at home in February.

The possession tug-of-war

Last season's Thunder won games before the shot went up. They turned it over on 12.3% of possessions, the lowest turnover rate in the league. They forced turnovers on 16.3% of opponent possessions, 2nd of 30. San Antonio barely pressures the ball by comparison: its forced turnover rate ranked 28th.

The Spurs take those extra chances back on the glass. They grabbed 77.3% of opponents' misses, the best defensive rebound rate in the NBA. Oklahoma City's offensive rebound rate ranked 28th, so second shots should be scarce. If the Thunder win the turnover column and the Spurs hold the boards, the game comes down to shot-making, where the two were nearly even last season in effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times): 56.1% for Oklahoma City and 55.9% for San Antonio.

Shai against a disciplined defense

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points last season and enters fully healthy, as do Holmgren and Jalen Williams. The Spurs' counter is discipline: they allowed the lowest opponent free throw rate in the league last season, which takes away a piece of his game.

Holmgren, who blocked 1.9 shots a night, draws Wembanyama again. At the other end, San Antonio's three-guard look tests whether Oklahoma City's size can stay with Fox, Castle and Harper. Johnson said that trio will play more than last season, though he couldn't say how much.

Castle ran the offense with 7.4 assists per game last season. Fox added 18.6 points a night, and Keldon Johnson scored 13.2 without making a start, part of a bench that also features Julian Champagnie.

Who sits for the opener

Tobias Harris, signed to a two-year, $31 million deal after two seasons in Detroit, will miss his Spurs regular-season debut with a left calf strain. Johnson said Monday, "He's not ready to play tomorrow." Jayden Quaintance (knee) remains out and hasn't been cleared for basketball activities.

For Oklahoma City, Nikola Topic (back surgery) and Thomas Sorber (knee surgery) are out, and Otega Oweh will miss the season after Achilles surgery. Ajay Mitchell, who averaged 13.6 points last season, should be active. Jared McCain shot 38.5% from three for Philadelphia last season and is one candidate to absorb Joe's shooting minutes.

A tight number on a quiet board

Oklahoma City is a 1-point favorite on the road with the total at 230.5, and neither number has moved from the first line our feed recorded. Last season's habits split: the Spurs went 39-27 against the spread, while the Thunder went 29-35.

Both defenses set the tone last season, with Oklahoma City 1st and San Antonio 3rd in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). The first half is the sharpest test: San Antonio led the league with 62.2 first-half points per game, and the Thunder allowed the fewest.