Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks prediction: LeBron's Sixers debut crashes the Knicks' championship banner night

New uniforms, old familiarity

The Knicks raise their championship banner at 6:30 PM ET, half an hour before tipoff, after beating San Antonio in five games in June. Then the most-watched new arrival in the league walks onto their floor. LeBron James signed a two-year deal with Philadelphia in July, and Jaylen Brown came over from Boston in the trade that sent Paul George the other way.

The talent is real. Brown averaged 28.7 points for the Celtics last season, James put up 20.9 a night for the Lakers, and Tyrese Maxey scored 28.3 per game for these Sixers. The projected starting five has Joel Embiid, James, Brown, Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, and neither Embiid nor James appears on the injury report. Edgecombe missed the preseason finale but returned to practice and is reportedly on track to start.

The catch is cohesion. Philadelphia returns players who logged 55.8% of last season's minutes; New York returns 87.2%. More than half the Sixers' active roster is new, so last season's 45-37 team numbers are a loose guide. Nick Nurse has said he will manage James' workload all season after chronic left-foot arthritis surfaced entering camp, which puts more weight on Brown, who can be pushed toward 40 minutes. One more wrinkle: new Knicks coach Mike Brown coached James for five seasons in Cleveland.

Who owns the glass

This is where the Knicks' edge looks sturdiest. New York grabbed 76.7% of available defensive rebounds last season, 2nd in the league, and Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 11.9 boards. Philadelphia's defensive rebound rate ranked 26th, and this year's frontcourt is thinner still.

Dominick Barlow is out at least two weeks with a lower-back stress reaction. Adem Bona is questionable with a foot sprain after missing preseason, though he practiced Sunday. Andre Drummond, a Sixer last season, now plays for the Knicks, who lost Mitchell Robinson to Boston. If Embiid is the only healthy big Philadelphia trusts, every Towns put-back and second chance matters.

The three-point gap

The Knicks shot 37.3% from deep last season, 4th in the NBA. The Sixers made 34.9%, 23rd. New York's shooting runs through the lineup: Josh Hart hit 41.3% of his threes and Anunoby 38.6%.

Philadelphia's best pure shooter may not be available. Anfernee Simons, a 38.5% shooter off Boston's bench last season, missed all of preseason with a hamstring issue and is questionable, though he practiced Sunday. Dean Wade is also questionable, a game-time decision after rolling an ankle in the preseason finale.

Hart's own status is the Knicks' only question. He sat out the preseason finale with right ankle soreness, but Mike Brown said Monday that everyone was healthy, and the Knicks listed nobody on their report. His own comments were noncommittal, so treat him as likely but not certain.

Tempo and a high total

The Knicks played at the 28th-fastest pace last season, about 99.8 possessions a game, and went under in 39 of 67 lined games. Philadelphia played faster, 13th in pace, and scored 60.2 first-half points per game, 5th in the league.

A 232 total asks for a quicker game than New York usually allows. The case for the over rests on the Sixers' new stars and an opening-night defense that hasn't had time to gel. The case for the under is the Knicks' tempo and their glass, which ends possessions.

Last season's strange split

The road team won all four meetings last season. The Sixers won twice at Madison Square Garden, 116-107 in December and 130-119 in January. The Knicks won both in Philadelphia, including a 138-89 rout in February.

The market sees continuity winning out tonight: Knicks -4.5 at home, -180 on the moneyline, unchanged across 11 books since our feed first recorded it. New York covered 35 of 67 lined games last season, and the Sixers went 33-33 against the spread.