Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors prediction: Klay Thompson returns to Chase Center as Warriors shooters test Miami's arc

A homecoming with a hard assignment

Klay Thompson walks back into Chase Center in a Heat jersey less than a day after his overtime winner beat the Clippers with 1.0 second left. The reunion is the story everyone will watch. The matchup that should decide the night sits around him: a Warriors team riding five straight wins against a Miami defense that has not guarded the three-point line.

The Heat allow opponents to shoot 40.5% from three, 30th of 30. They also let opponents take a lot of them, with the 4th-highest opponent three-point attempt rate in the league. Their opponent effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, is last as well.

That is a bad draw against Golden State. The Warriors make 38.9% of their threes, 2nd in the league. Stephen Curry is scoring 30.0 points a night, De'Anthony Melton has hit 46.3% off the bench and rookie Yaxel Lendeborg is making 40.0%. If Miami's closeouts look tired, this can get away early.

Giannis goes downhill

Miami's answer is the paint. The Heat score 52.2 points a game there, 4th in the league, and convert 57.3% of their twos (also 4th). Antetokounmpo, in his first season in Miami, is averaging 28.2 points and 12.5 rebounds.

Golden State offers little resistance inside. The Warriors rank 26th in block rate and 27th in opponent two-point percentage. Expect Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo to live at the rim.

The catch is spacing. Antetokounmpo and Adebayo have made nine of 45 threes combined. Antetokounmpo is shooting 21.1% from three and Adebayo 19.2%, and the overlap between them has made the new lineup hard to fit together. Antetokounmpo is also shooting 65.8% at the line, which matters if the Warriors foul him late in a close game.

Second chances on a second night

Golden State rebounds 32.9% of its own misses, the best offensive rebound rate in the league. Miami holds up reasonably on the defensive glass, ranking 10th. Still, the Heat played overtime in Los Angeles on Wednesday, and this is the second night of a back-to-back. The Warriors come in with three days of rest.

That gap tends to show up in effort plays: offensive rebounds, transition defense and contested threes late in the shot clock. Miami's biggest concern after its loss to the Lakers was a lack of defensive effort. Golden State's turnover problem, a rate that ranks 23rd, is the main way the Heat can steal extra possessions.

Who is available

Antetokounmpo played through a right wrist sprain Wednesday and scored 27; Miami has not posted a status for Thursday. Myron Gardner's quad left him questionable on one Wednesday listing and available on another, and his Thursday status is unknown.

Golden State has ruled out Gui Santos with a knee issue. Kristaps Porzingis remains away from the team and is considering retirement. Moses Moody (patellar tendon) and Jimmy Butler (ACL) were both still months away as of Oct. 16. Curry was listed out with right knee management on the Sunday report and was expected back Monday; his Thursday status is unconfirmed.

Where the market sits

Where the market sits The Warriors are 3.5-point favorites, and the line has moved from -7.5 to -3.5, a shift toward Miami. The 235.5 total has not moved since our feed first recorded it. Golden State has covered six of eight games; Miami has covered two of eight.

The total leans on tempo. Miami plays at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league, while Golden State ranks 21st. The Heat have also allowed 64.5 first-half points a game, 28th in the league, which makes the opening 24 minutes worth watching for anyone tracking the total.

What to watch - Whether Miami's tired legs show up on Warriors three-point attempts. - Antetokounmpo's volume in the paint against a thin Golden State frontcourt. - Curry's status, still unconfirmed for Thursday.