Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks prediction: Winless Knicks need offense against the Pistons, who swept them last season

The champions can't find the basket

The defending champions are 0-3 for the first time since the 2011-12 Mavericks did it, and tonight the team that beat them three times last season comes to the Garden. The Pistons are 3-0. Tonight tests whether New York's offense finally wakes up or Detroit keeps doing what it did all last year.

The Knicks score 99.2 points per 100 possessions, 30th of 30. This is largely last season's core, and that group scored 116.7 per 100, third in the league. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, sits at 47.6%, 28th.

Sunday's loss to Orlando showed the problem. New York went 9-for-38 from three. Brunson led the Knicks with 28 points but missed six of his seven threes, and he has put the offense's struggles on himself. Mike Brown, in his second season, said Sunday that only five spots in his rotation are set.

Detroit has New York's number

Last season's series wasn't close. Detroit won 121-90 and 118-80 at home. The Pistons then won 126-111 at the Garden in February.

This season's defense looks just as stingy. Opponents post a 48.0% effective field goal percentage against Detroit, 3rd in the league, and the Pistons block shots at the second-highest rate. That's a problem for a Knicks team averaging only 42.0 paint points per game, 27th. If Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns can't get to the rim, New York needs its threes to fall, and they haven't.

Life without Duren

Detroit plays without Jalen Duren, who strained his right hamstring and will be reevaluated in two weeks, with an estimated return of Nov. 9. He averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds last season. Paul Reed has taken his spot in the starting five, and Daniss Jenkins has started alongside Cade Cunningham, John Collins and Duncan Robinson.

Ausar Thompson is a game-time call with a right ankle sprain. He got hurt Friday against Miami and sat out Sunday after going through warm-ups. His status is unsettled, though he is officially listed as questionable. Isaiah Joe is also questionable with a hip bruise after sitting the second half Sunday. Detroit still jumped out to a big early lead and beat Philadelphia without Duren or Thompson.

The rebounding is where Duren will be missed. The Knicks rebound 80.0% of opponents' misses, 1st in the league. Without Duren, Detroit's second-chance points get harder to find. New York is down Jose Alvarado, who is out with a left ankle sprain.

Threes, and turnovers nobody collects

Detroit is making 42.0% from three, 3rd in the league, and the Knicks have been soft on the perimeter, allowing 36.4%, 22nd. Robinson and Collins, a newcomer who shot well from deep for the Clippers last season, will get looks if New York's rotations stay loose.

Detroit's weakness is ball security: its turnover rate ranks 25th. The Knicks are badly placed to punish that, ranking 28th in forcing turnovers. Unless that changes, Detroit's sloppiness costs it shots without handing New York easy baskets.

A line that hasn't budged

The market still makes the Knicks a 4-point favorite at home, with a total of 218.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game this morning. That respects New York's talent more than its results. The Knicks haven't covered once, while Detroit is 3-0 against the spread. All three New York games have gone under, which fits an offense this cold against a defense this sharp.

What to watch: - Whether Thompson plays, and how Reed holds up against Towns. - Brunson's three-point shooting after Sunday's misses. - Detroit's turnovers against a Knicks defense that rarely forces them.