Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics prediction: Celtics' red-hot shooters face a Nets defense that hands out threes

Open looks, all night

The Nets are winless, and the biggest reason is a perimeter defense that has given opponents whatever they want from deep. Brooklyn ranks 1st in opponent 3-point attempt rate, meaning no team's opponents take a larger share of their shots from three, and those shots are falling at 40.3%, 28th of 30. Overall, opponents carry a 60.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times) against Brooklyn, dead last.

That is the worst possible profile to bring to TD Garden right now. Boston is shooting 42.4% from three, 1st in the league, and takes threes at the 5th-highest rate. Payton Pritchard showed the ceiling Monday against Chicago, making all five of his 3-point attempts in a big third quarter on the way to 28 points in a 134-99 rout. Add Sam Hauser and newcomer Paul George, who shot 39.2% from three for Philadelphia last season, and the Celtics have shooters at every spot to punish rotations that arrive late.

Tatum and the second night

The wrinkle is the schedule. Tuesday is Boston's first back-to-back of the season, coming the night after the Bulls game. Jayson Tatum, who had 23 points, seven rebounds and six assists Monday, didn't play back-to-backs during his limited stretch back from his Achilles injury, and nothing newer on his Tuesday status had surfaced. Treat his availability as unsettled until Boston says otherwise.

The Celtics are already without guard Devin Carter, who was diagnosed with mononucleosis Oct. 18 and remains out. No one else appears on Boston's injury report. Even without Tatum, a rotation built around Derrick White, Pritchard, George and Mitchell Robinson has plenty of the shooting that matters most in this matchup.

Where Brooklyn's possessions die

Brooklyn also gives the ball away. The Nets' turnover rate of 17.8 per 100 possessions ranks 28th, and Boston forces turnovers at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. Live-ball mistakes against a team this efficient tend to become runs.

The interior offers no escape. Brooklyn's 2-point percentage of 45.1 ranks 30th, and it scores the fewest paint points in the league, while Boston allows the fewest. The Nets' best counter is the free throw line: their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranks 6th, and Boston's opponent free throw rate ranks 27th. If Brooklyn keeps this close, expect it to come from drawn fouls rather than layups.

A rebuilt Nets roster

Brooklyn returns 65.4% of last season's minutes from a team that went 20-62, so last season's numbers are a loose guide. The newcomers carry the load. Julius Randle averaged 21.1 points for Minnesota last season, and Michael Porter Jr. averaged 24.2 for Brooklyn. Rookie Mikel Brown Jr., the sixth overall pick, is off the injury report after sitting Sunday for back maintenance, but he will likely remain on a minutes restriction.

Forward Tyler Bilodeau's status is unsettled: he was ruled out Sunday with a right shoulder sprain, and Tuesday listings ranged from questionable to day-to-day. Brooklyn has lost 11 of its last 12 to Boston, including a 148-111 blowout at TD Garden in February.

What the market says

Boston was first seen in our feed at -11.5 with a total of 221, and neither number has moved across 11 books. The Nets showed they can hang around big numbers, losing 125-121 at Cleveland as 11.5-point underdogs. But they followed that with a 136-109 home loss to Indiana.

• Tempo clash: Brooklyn ranks 7th in pace, Boston 27th.
• First halves: Boston allows 49.3 first-half points per game, 2nd-fewest.
• Tatum news: any word on his status is the swing factor for the spread.