Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers prediction: Without Haliburton and Zubac, can Indiana bully winless Brooklyn again?
The Pacers routed the Nets a week ago behind their star point guard, but a thinned-out Indiana now has to win the same way with fewer bodies and a market that sees only a 3.5-point gap.
| Spread | Indiana Pacers -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 229.5 |
- Indiana's interior scoring should drive this, but Brooklyn's elite defensive rebounding and Indiana's thin roster keep a short favorite honest.
- Pascal Siakam and the Pacers' paint attack against a Nets defense allowing 59.0% on twos, 27th in the league.
- Pacers -3.5 and 230.5 haven't moved since our feed first saw the game; Brooklyn plays at the league's 3rd-fastest pace.
A rematch missing its star
A week ago, Indiana walked into Brooklyn and won 136-109, with Tyrese Haliburton leading the way with 24 points. The sequel looks nothing like it. Haliburton is out with a mild left hamstring strain and is week-to-week, and starting center Ivica Zubac will stay on the inactive list with a sprained left ankle.
The list keeps going. T.J. McConnell has yet to make his season debut, and Ben Sheppard will miss months after meniscus surgery. Obi Toppin (back) is questionable after missing Friday, and Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) is probable, with the team expected to watch his minutes. Indiana is on a three-game skid, capped by a 145-125 NBA Cup loss in Miami in which the Pacers ran out of gas after a hot first quarter. They are still winless at home, and they host Atlanta on Monday, so this is the front end of a back-to-back.
Brooklyn is the last team in the East without a win, starting 0-5 for the second straight year. The Nets will be shorthanded too: rookie Mikel Brown Jr. is out, as are Egor Demin (bone bruise) and Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder).
Indiana's paint against a soft middle
The cleanest edge in this game sits near the rim. Indiana scores 54.3 points in the paint per game, 4th in the league, and hits 57.2% of its twos. Brooklyn has struggled to stop anyone inside, allowing opponents 59.0% on two-pointers. The Nets also lost last season's starting center, Nic Claxton, who is now in Chicago.
Zubac's absence blunts some of that, which puts more on Siakam, Jay Huff and Andrew Nembhard's passing. Indiana assists on a high share of its baskets, 3rd in the league.
The counterweight is the glass. Brooklyn grabs 77.4% of available defensive rebounds, 2nd in the NBA, and Indiana is 26th on the offensive boards. The Pacers will get one shot per trip and have to make it count. At the other end, the Nets average just 39.2 paint points, dead last, so they live on the perimeter.
Randle, Porter and the giveaways
Brooklyn's offense scores 102.7 points per 100 possessions, 29th in the league, and the biggest leak is ball security. The Nets turn it over on 18.1% of their possessions, 28th. That is not a big problem for Brooklyn against Indiana's defense: the Pacers rank 24th in forcing turnovers and 27th in steal rate.
That should give Michael Porter Jr., who averaged 24.2 points last season, and Julius Randle more clean possessions. Randle averaged 21.1 points for Minnesota last season before arriving in Brooklyn. With Demin and Brown out, Nolan Traore and Keon Ellis are in line for bigger roles in the backcourt.
Pace, threes and the 230.5 total
Brooklyn plays fast, 3rd in the league in pace, and takes threes on 47.1% of its shots, 4th. Indiana's defense allows a 36.3% three-point mark, 21st, and gives up 63.2 first-half points per game, 27th. The Pacers also push in transition, averaging 18.7 fast-break points, 4th.
The market has been steady: Indiana -3.5 and a total of 230.5 across 11 books, unchanged since our feed first logged the game. Brooklyn is 2-3 against the spread, with covers as a double-digit underdog at Cleveland and Boston. One late-game wrinkle: Indiana shoots 73.0% at the line, 28th, which can stretch out a close finish.
What to watch
- Whether Toppin plays, which changes Indiana's frontcourt depth with Zubac out.
- Brooklyn's turnovers: a clean night for the Nets makes a short spread live.
- Early pace: both teams like to run, and Indiana has given up big first halves.
Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers line movement and odds
| Book | Nets ML | Pacers ML | Nets spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 | +3.5 (-115) | o229.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +135 | -167 | +3.5 (-109) | o230.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | +3.5 (-115) | o230.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 | +3.5 (-115) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 | +3.5 (-115) | o229.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 | +3.5 (-114) | o229.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -165 | +3.5 (-115) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 | +3 (-105) | o229.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Brooklyn Nets: 40% of bets, 55% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 60% of bets, 45% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indiana Pacers -3.5: 52% of bets, 11% of the money; Brooklyn Nets +3.5: 48% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 67% of bets, 84% of the money; Under 228.5: 33% of bets, 16% of the money.
Key players
- Pascal Siakam (Indiana Pacers): Averaged 24.0 points for Indiana last season and carries more of the load with Haliburton out.
- Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers): Dished 7.7 assists per game last season and runs the offense with Haliburton and McConnell sidelined.
- Jay Huff (Indiana Pacers): Blocked 1.9 shots per game for Indiana last season, and his role grows with Zubac inactive.
- Kelly Oubre Jr. (Indiana Pacers): Averaged 14.1 points for Philadelphia last season before signing with Indiana.
- Michael Porter Jr. (Brooklyn Nets): Averaged 24.2 points and hit 36.3% from three for Brooklyn last season.
- Julius Randle (Brooklyn Nets): Averaged 21.1 points and 5.0 assists for Minnesota last season in his first year away from the Timberwolves.
- Keon Ellis (Brooklyn Nets): Averaged 1.2 steals for Sacramento last season and could see more minutes with Demin and Brown out.
Numbers that matter
| Pacers paint points per game | 54.3 | 4th in the league, aimed at a Nets defense that ranks 27th in opponent 2-point percentage. |
|---|---|---|
| Nets defensive rebound % | 77.4% | 2nd in the NBA, limiting an Indiana offense that ranks 26th on the offensive glass. |
| Nets turnover rate | 18.1% | 28th in the league, but Indiana ranks only 24th at forcing turnovers. |
| Spread | -3.5 | Indiana is favored by 3.5, unchanged since our feed first recorded the line. |
| Total | 230.5 | Brooklyn plays at the 3rd-fastest pace, and Indiana allows 63.2 first-half points. |
Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers: quick answers
Who is favored in Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers?
Indiana Pacers is favored by 3.5 points (Indiana Pacers -3.5).
What is the over/under for Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers?
The total is 229.5 points.
When is Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 5:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers?
Yes: Brooklyn Nets opened +4.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 230.5 to 229.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Brooklyn Nets: 40% of bets, 55% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 60% of bets, 45% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indiana Pacers -3.5: 52% of bets, 11% of the money; Brooklyn Nets +3.5: 48% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 67% of bets, 84% of the money; Under 228.5: 33% of bets, 16% of the money.