Do these two prices guarantee a profit?

Check two prices at different books for an arbitrage and split your stake so both outcomes pay the same.

How it works

• An arbitrage exists when the two implied probabilities add up to less than 100%.
• Each stake = total × that side’s implied probability / the sum, so both outcomes pay the same.
• Profit = total × (1 / sum − 1). +110 / +105 on $1,000 returns about $37.

Questions

Why are arbitrages rare and small?

Books move fast, most arbs are 1-3%, and stakes are often limited. Books also limit accounts that arb regularly.

What can go wrong?

A price can move before the second bet is placed, a bet can be voided, or the two books can grade the market differently.

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