NFL Division rematches: Buffalo Bills: ATS Record Since 1999
The second meeting of the season. 86 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 40-42-4 (48.8%)
Straight up: 43-43 (50.0%)
Over/under: 43-42-1 (50.6% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.06 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 19-25 (43.2%); 2013-2025: 21-17 (55.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2024 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2023 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2021 | 3-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 2-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2012 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2008 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2007 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2005 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2004 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2003 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2002 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2001 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 2-1-1 | 66.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL division rematches for the Buffalo Bills?
40-42-4 against the spread (48.8%) in 86 team-games since 1999, 43-43 straight up and 43-42-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 19-25 (43.2%); 2013-2025: 21-17 (55.3%).