NBA First 10 games of the season: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Before the numbers settle. 196 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 91-103-2 (46.9%)
Straight up: 102-94 (52.0%)
Over/under: 90-104-2 (46.4% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.24 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 48-52 (48.0%); 2018-2027: 43-51 (45.7%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: MIA at LAL
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2026 | 7-2-1 | 77.8% |
| 2025 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2024 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2023 | 2-8 | 20.0% |
| 2022 | 7-3 | 70.0% |
| 2021 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2020 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 3-6-1 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2016 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2013 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2010 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2009 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2008 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first 10 games of the season for the Miami Heat?
91-103-2 against the spread (46.9%) in 196 team-games since 2007-08, 102-94 straight up and 90-104-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 48-52 (48.0%); 2018-2027: 43-51 (45.7%).