NBA Rested team vs a back-to-back: Portland Trail Blazers: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The rest edge. 160 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 80-80 (50.0%)
Straight up: 105-55 (65.6%)
Over/under: 85-74-1 (53.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.24 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 60-53 (53.1%); 2018-2026: 20-27 (42.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 1-7 | 12.5% |
| 2023 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2022 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2019 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2018 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 5-6 | 45.5% |
| 2016 | 9-1 | 90.0% |
| 2015 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2014 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2013 | 5-6 | 45.5% |
| 2012 | 5-3 | 62.5% |
| 2011 | 7-4 | 63.6% |
| 2010 | 3-6 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 10-8 | 55.6% |
| 2008 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA rested team vs a back-to-back for the Portland Trail Blazers?
80-80 against the spread (50.0%) in 160 team-games since 2007-08, 105-55 straight up and 85-74-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 60-53 (53.1%); 2018-2026: 20-27 (42.6%).