NBA Rested team vs a back-to-back: Oklahoma City Thunder: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The rest edge. 131 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 64-63-4 (50.4%)
Straight up: 88-43 (67.2%)
Over/under: 68-62-1 (52.3% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.8 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 42-40 (51.2%); 2018-2026: 22-23 (48.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2024 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2023 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2020 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2019 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2018 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2017 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2016 | 5-7 | 41.7% |
| 2015 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2014 | 9-4 | 69.2% |
| 2013 | 6-3 | 66.7% |
| 2012 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2010 | 0-6 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 2-3-1 | 40.0% |
| 2008 | 8-6-1 | 57.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA rested team vs a back-to-back for the Oklahoma City Thunder?
64-63-4 against the spread (50.4%) in 131 team-games since 2007-08, 88-43 straight up and 68-62-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 42-40 (51.2%); 2018-2026: 22-23 (48.9%).