NBA Rested team vs a back-to-back: New Orleans Pelicans: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The rest edge. 151 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 78-73 (51.7%)
Straight up: 89-62 (58.9%)
Over/under: 71-78-2 (47.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.37 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.4%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 51-53 (49.0%); 2018-2026: 27-20 (57.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 6-3 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2022 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2021 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2020 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2019 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2018 | 3-5 | 37.5% |
| 2017 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2016 | 5-8 | 38.5% |
| 2015 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2014 | 8-5 | 61.5% |
| 2013 | 3-7 | 30.0% |
| 2012 | 6-2 | 75.0% |
| 2011 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2010 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2009 | 5-8 | 38.5% |
| 2008 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA rested team vs a back-to-back for the New Orleans Pelicans?
78-73 against the spread (51.7%) in 151 team-games since 2007-08, 89-62 straight up and 71-78-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.4%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 51-53 (49.0%); 2018-2026: 27-20 (57.4%).