NBA Rested team vs a back-to-back: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The rest edge. 139 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 61-75-3 (44.9%)
Straight up: 87-52 (62.6%)
Over/under: 70-69 (50.4% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.79 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 39-51 (43.3%); 2018-2026: 22-24 (47.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: MIA at LAL
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2022 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2020 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 33.3% |
| 2018 | 4-2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2016 | 3-7 | 30.0% |
| 2015 | 4-9 | 30.8% |
| 2014 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2012 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 4-5-1 | 44.4% |
| 2010 | 4-6-1 | 40.0% |
| 2009 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 3-7 | 30.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA rested team vs a back-to-back for the Miami Heat?
61-75-3 against the spread (44.9%) in 139 team-games since 2007-08, 87-52 straight up and 70-69 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 39-51 (43.3%); 2018-2026: 22-24 (47.8%).