NBA Rested team vs a back-to-back: Indiana Pacers: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The rest edge. 147 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 72-74-1 (49.3%)
Straight up: 93-54 (63.3%)
Over/under: 75-72 (51.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.63 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 50-51 (49.5%); 2018-2026: 22-23 (48.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2024 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2018 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2017 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2016 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 9-6 | 60.0% |
| 2014 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2013 | 4-8 | 33.3% |
| 2012 | 2-6 | 25.0% |
| 2011 | 6-1 | 85.7% |
| 2010 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 3-7 | 30.0% |
| 2008 | 5-6 | 45.5% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA rested team vs a back-to-back for the Indiana Pacers?
72-74-1 against the spread (49.3%) in 147 team-games since 2007-08, 93-54 straight up and 75-72 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 50-51 (49.5%); 2018-2026: 22-23 (48.9%).