NBA Rested team vs a back-to-back: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The rest edge. 174 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 98-70-6 (58.3%)
Straight up: 133-41 (76.4%)
Over/under: 89-83-2 (51.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.92 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 17 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 67-51 (56.8%); 2018-2027: 31-19 (62.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2025 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2024 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 5-3 | 62.5% |
| 2022 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 4-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2018 | 6-2 | 75.0% |
| 2017 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2016 | 6-3-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 8-3 | 72.7% |
| 2012 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 9-4-1 | 69.2% |
| 2010 | 8-7-1 | 53.3% |
| 2009 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2008 | 8-6 | 57.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA rested team vs a back-to-back for the Denver Nuggets?
98-70-6 against the spread (58.3%) in 174 team-games since 2007-08, 133-41 straight up and 89-83-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 17 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 67-51 (56.8%); 2018-2027: 31-19 (62.0%).