NBA Rested team vs a back-to-back: Dallas Mavericks: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The rest edge. 161 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 80-79-2 (50.3%)
Straight up: 113-48 (70.2%)
Over/under: 85-74-2 (53.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.69 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 57-51 (52.8%); 2018-2026: 23-28 (45.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2025 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2024 | 2-5 | 28.6% |
| 2023 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 4-2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2021 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2020 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2019 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2018 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 6-1 | 85.7% |
| 2016 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2015 | 6-11 | 35.3% |
| 2014 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2013 | 10-6 | 62.5% |
| 2012 | 6-3 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 3-5-1 | 37.5% |
| 2010 | 5-7 | 41.7% |
| 2009 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2008 | 5-3 | 62.5% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA rested team vs a back-to-back for the Dallas Mavericks?
80-79-2 against the spread (50.3%) in 161 team-games since 2007-08, 113-48 straight up and 85-74-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 57-51 (52.8%); 2018-2026: 23-28 (45.1%).